Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Equity bears remain in control, with broad-based weakness across the board. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 3.6%, the Nasdaq (QQQ) led to the downside, off 5.1%, and small caps (IWM) dropped 3.2%. But it wasn’t just equities seeing large moves. Gold rallied nearly 3.5%, front-month crude pushed into triple digits around $103, up 16%, and Bitcoin slid another 5%.

What stood out wasn’t just direction, it was tone. Rallies were sold quickly, and dips failed to attract buyers.

The pattern has been consistent: early-week strength fades into midweek drift, followed by late-week selling. Thursday and Friday both opened with gaps lower and closed near intraday lows. With geopolitical headlines accelerating, holding risk into the weekend continues to feel less attractive.

But Monday broke the pattern. Instead of a bounce, early strength was sold, turning into steady pressure throughout the day as oil continued higher. With Non-Farm Payrolls set to be released while markets are closed for Good Friday, positioning may already be shifting ahead of that event.

At this point, price action matters more than narrative. The noise is elevated, and the tape is reflecting it.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Last week, I highlighted the relationship between U.S. Treasuries and oil. For most of the past month, the pattern has been:

oil up → stocks down → bonds down → gold down.

Over the last two sessions, that shifted:

oil up → stocks down → bonds up → gold up.

It’s subtle, but notable.

Treasuries have started to catch a bid, particularly at the front end of the curve. That shift may signal the market beginning to price in slower global growth rather than just inflation pressure. At the same time, last week’s elevated rate hike expectations have been largely priced out.

This is not a confirmed trend yet, but it’s a change worth watching. If Treasuries continue to strengthen while equities struggle, it could point to a broader shift in how markets are interpreting oil’s impact. Instead of purely inflationary, it may increasingly be seen as a drag on growth. That’s a meaningful difference.

With Monday’s close above the 5EMA for U.S. Treasury Bond futures (/ZB), positive momentum may be building, and if price closes above the January 20th swing low, a trader may consider a bullish strategy. With IV rank near 40, a trader looking for additional near-term upside could consider selling a put vertical to keep risk defined. This position would benefit from a bullish move and decreasing volatility, along with time passing.

On Sunday, we got one of those endings that will stick for a while. UConn men's basketball punched their ticket to the Final Four after a chaotic final sequence against Duke. Up two with 10 seconds left, the “obvious” move was simple: inbound, secure the ball, force the foul, hit free throws, go home.

Instead, in the speed and pressure of the moment, Duke tried to advance the ball. That decision cascaded into a turnover and a finish that flipped the outcome.

It wasn’t just that one sequence that lost them the game, and it’s easy to critique after the fact. But what stood out to me wasn’t the mistake, it was how fragile execution becomes when things speed up.

Two takeaways I’m thinking about this week:

1) Build simple rules before you need them.
In high-pressure moments, you don’t rise to the occasion, you fall back on your systems. The best operators reduce complexity into clear “if this, then that” rules.

If you can’t inbound, then call timeout.
If you secure possession, then protect the ball.
If they need to foul, then make them foul you.

In markets, that might look like predefined risk rules: if price breaks your level, you’re out. No debate. Position sizing, max loss per trade, and when you step away for the day should all be decided before you click buy or sell.

In your career, it could be a simple operating system for execution. If a project slips two days, you communicate it immediately. If a meeting doesn’t have a clear outcome, you follow up within 24 hours. If priorities conflict, you default to the highest impact work, not the most recent email.

In your personal life, the same idea applies. If your morning starts to drift, you reset with a short routine like a walk or a 10-minute meditation. If you feel overwhelmed, you choose one thing to complete instead of juggling five. If you’re trying to build a habit, you tie it to a trigger. After coffee, I read for 10 minutes. After work, I go for a workout.

Simple rules remove hesitation when it matters most.

2) Practice at full speed so real moments feel slower.
There’s a reason John Wooden emphasized “Be quick but don’t hurry.” His practices were more structured and intense than games, so when the lights were on, players operated with clarity.

You can apply this everywhere.
Run your weekly planning like a real execution drill, not a loose brainstorm.
Rehearse presentations out loud and on a timer, not just in your head.
Role play tough conversations so you’re not searching for words in the moment.
Test your trading rules and simulate drawdowns so you know how you’ll respond.

The goal isn’t perfection. It’s preparation.

Because when things speed up, simplicity and repetition are what keep you in control.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.