Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

It has been a month, and equities are, without a doubt, continuing to hate the abundance of uncertainty right now. We saw the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) breach key technical levels as the FOMC held steady. The Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra is clashing with an oil spike, creating a cocktail that sent yields to cycle highs as echoes of stagflation begin to percolate. Front month 10-Year Yield futures (/10Y) hit their highest level since last July, spiking to 4.446 on Monday.

For the third week in a row, it was risk-off into the weekend. Traders were bracing for a potential ultimatum and a full-scale disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. With crude oil futures (/CL) trading back near triple digits, holding a long position over a 48-hour gap is hard to stomach.

And for the third Monday in a row, we saw the opposite tape. SPY and QQQ caught a bid after headlines signaled a five-day halt on Iranian energy strikes. You can call it relief or short covering, but whatever it was, it turned into a quick 3.5% rally as oil dipped back into the high $80s. The Russell (IWM) also showed life, catching a rotation as the immediate geopolitical tail risk was clipped.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Over the past month, I’ve been closely watching how U.S. Treasuries are trading relative to oil. Oil has pushed higher, and that’s starting to show up not just at the pump, but in expectations. When oil rises, it feeds directly into inflation through transportation, production, and a long list of inputs most people don’t think about. Bond traders have been positioning for this pass-through, which has pushed the 10-Year Yield futures (/10Y) from a year-to-date low of 3.875 to 4.444.

Instead of acting as a clean risk-off asset, Treasuries are currently more sensitive to inflation signals. As oil moves up, yields have been moving higher as well, reflecting a market that is less confident the Fed can ease anytime soon. The front end has reacted the most, but the long end is feeling it too.

What I’m focused on is the relationship between the two. If oil continues higher and yields follow, that reinforces a higher for longer backdrop. If that relationship breaks and Treasuries start rallying despite elevated oil, that is a signal the market is prioritizing growth concerns over inflation.

This is one of those cross-asset relationships that tends to tell you more than any single chart on its own. Additionally, for the first time this year, the market is also starting to meaningfully price in rate hikes, even if the probabilities are still low.

Bond volatility has picked up significantly over the past three weeks. That may make it appealing for premium sellers to step in and sell options, but I’m staying on the sidelines for now.

Not too long ago, I was listening to a bit of sports talk radio, and one of the hosts said something that got me thinking. I don’t remember the context, but the phrase “Life is short” was mentioned.

And while it certainly is short in many respects, I’d like to offer a different perspective. Life is long. Longer than we give it credit for.

We often tend to think in short windows. One job. One phase. One version of ourselves. But when you zoom out, you start to see the bigger picture.

You realize you have time to go deep on something. To get obsessed. To get good. Maybe even great.

And then you can do it again.

And when you think about it, what you were doing ten years ago might look completely unrelated to what you are doing today. But it’s not. It all stacks. It all compounds. You are not starting over. You are building on top.

It’s like running a series of mini careers. Serial PhDs without the institution.

A simple example. Someone might start in sales, learning how to communicate, handle objections, and read people. A few years later, they move into operations and learn how systems actually work. Then they step into leadership and learn how to manage and motivate a team. They didn’t leave sales behind. They carried those skills, like empathy and persuasion, forward to their new roles. Over time, that combination becomes an edge. That is their unfair advantage.

In trading, this shows up everywhere. The trader who looks natural today is usually pulling from years of pattern recognition, past mistakes, and reps across different environments and market regimes. The losses, the missed trades, the frustration. None of it is wasted. Every cycle leaves a mark.

The same applies in your personal life. The habits you build and the phases you move through shape how you show up today. Even the things that felt like detours become inputs. That fitness phase you had three years ago was not just about the weights. It was about consistency and tracking progress. You can apply that same approach to your finances or really any new skill. The "how" stays the same even when the "what" changes.

As it relates to markets, my own expertise evolved from poker, to fantasy sports, to sports betting, and now trading. The avenue changed, but the goal stayed the same: how to find an edge.

So take the time to go deep on something. Get really into it. Get really good at it.

And then go do something else and get really good at that, too.

Finally, as promised, here are my brackets for 2026. It is indeed, madness, every year. The women’s bracket is not in a pool. For the men’s, I’m in 3rd for the ESPN bracket and 14th for the Yahoo one. Let me know how you’re doing!

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.