Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Stocks climb as traders weigh rate cut hopes against current valuations.

“Up” voters get another one with the S&P 500 (via SPY) up 1.35% over the past week, hitting an all-time high of $672.67 before selling off into the weekend. The move higher was broad, with tech and consumer discretionary leading the charge while defensive sectors lagged. Bond yields eased slightly after weeks of pressure, giving equities some breathing room, although they ticked higher to start the week.

With the government still shut down, we didn’t get the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, leaving traders without a key datapoint on the labor market. Private estimates point to a continued slowdown in job growth, which may be fueling hopes for rate cuts. Could this rate cut optimism be what’s driving the market higher, or will investors start to think valuations have gone too far?

Other key market moves last week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

A look at Bitcoin’s range break, options plays, and how to size in smartly.

A few months ago, I wrote about why I believe everyone should consider having at least some small exposure to Bitcoin as an investment vehicle (if their risk tolerance allows for it, of course). Since then, the price has been trading in a range from roughly $107,400 to $123,800. Over the weekend, it finally broke above that range, reaching a new all-time high of about $126,200 on Monday.

The breakout wasn’t clean and has seen little follow-through since. While I still believe the macro backdrop remains constructive for Bitcoin (and gold) long term, I’m wary this most recent push might have been a trap for buyers, which could set up a short-term pullback.

Long-only investors could consider starting small (e.g. 10% of a full position) and layering in over the coming weeks. But one of the benefits of options trading is that you don’t always need to pick a direction to make money. With volatility ticking up, traders could sell a bear call spread, which benefits from a down move or sideways action. Alternatively, if a trader expects volatility to keep rising and doesn’t want to bet on direction, a long straddle could make sense. It profits from a significant move in either direction, plus any increase in volatility.

For those sticking to listed equities, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains the simplest way to gain exposure. But if anyone wants to explore self-custody and actually own Bitcoin directly, reach out to me at [email protected], and I’d be happy to walk through the setup process.

The mindset that separates those who last from those who peak too early.

Over the weekend, I listened to an interview with Jack Schwager, author of Market Wizards. He mentioned that one of the top traders he interviewed has a mindset to always think like a trainee. In trading, the moment you start believing you’ve “figured it out,” the market proves otherwise. A strategy that worked last month or last year suddenly stops, often for reasons that don’t make sense. Volatility shifts, sentiment changes, and the same setup yields different results. The traders who last aren’t the ones clinging to what used to work. They’re the ones who stay in training. They review, adapt, and refine. Mastery isn’t a destination. It’s a daily practice.

That same mindset applies to careers, too. The best professionals don’t just rely on what made them successful in the past. They pause and ask, “Is this still the best way to do my job?” When the answer is no, they adjust. The ones who keep advancing aren’t necessarily the smartest. Often they’re just the most coachable.

And it’s true in everyday life. Think about someone training for a half marathon who realizes their old plan no longer works. They have to reassess what progress looks like. Maybe that means adding rehab sessions between long runs, refining their form, or adjusting their nutrition. It’s a forced reset that demands humility and patience, but it’s also a reminder that growth isn’t linear.

The principle holds across everything: think like a trainee. Stay curious, stay adaptable, stay in training. Whether it’s markets, your career, or your personal life, the people who continue to grow are the ones who keep learning, unlearning, and relearning. The best don’t act like they’ve arrived. They act like they’re just getting started.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.