Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!
On deck this week…
New week, same story in equities
Earnings are back with macro indicators also looming
Navigating an UBER trade
Talkin’ a bit of Bitcoin
Around the Market
If only by $0.59, it’s another week and another all-time high.
The S&P 500 (via SPY) reached $626.87 last Thursday before pulling back slightly to close at $624.81, up 0.67% on the week (the “Up >0.5%” voters take this one). We seem to be in the summer snooze period with lower trade volumes paired with a drift higher in equities. Seasonality suggests there may be a bit more upside before volatility returns in August. Earnings are picking back up, and a few key macroeconomic indicators are also on deck. Will we see anything this week that can shake up the market?
Where do you think the S&P 500 will be next week?
Daily chart of SPY over 1Y time interval
Other notable market moves since last week:
Volatility (VIX): Trended lower most of the week, reaching ~15.7 before climbing to ~17.2 on Monday
Gold: Sold off during the week to ~$3,290, then rebounded to ~$3,390; up only ~$11 from last week after weakness Monday
Bonds: Tried to rally, hitting 114.25 by Thursday, but sold off to 112.75
US dollar: Continued positive momentum, rising another 0.6% to 98.1
Crude oil: Down ~$1 on the week but showing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows
Bitcoin: Broke to new all-time highs last week and extended gains over the weekend, reaching ~$122,740 on Monday
The Week Ahead
Economic Calendar
Producer Price Index PPI (Wed 7/16 8:30a ET)
Consumer Retail Sales (Thu 7/17 8:30a ET)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Fri 7/18 10:00a ET)
Fed Char Powell Speech (Tue 7/22 8:30a ET)
Notable Earnings
Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.
On My Radar
Uber Technologies UBER has been on an impressive run over the past three months, climbing from around $60 on April 7 to nearly $98 by July 9. This was recently buoyed by a partnership with Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo to offer robotaxi rides in Atlanta.
Daily chart of UBER over 1Y time interval
The price has taken a breather recently, and for a potential trade, I’m watching a few signals. I’d like to see Monday’s close come in below Friday’s low price and for Monday’s high to hold on Tuesday. I’d also prefer Tuesday’s close to land below the May 20 high of $93.60. If these signals occur and I believe price may continue to slide, I’d look to structure a bear call spread to take advantage of the elevated IV rank, which is currently above 35. With earnings on August 6, I’d definitely want to be out of the position before then to avoid the binary risk.
Side note: For the last two weeks, I’ve had a slight short bias in equities. Not because I have a crystal ball, but because to me, there seems to be a growing complacency in the market. When I see tickers up 80%–90% since April, it feels like we’ve moved too far, too fast. I’m expressing this bias through small-risk, high-reward trades, and I’m cutting them quickly if they don’t work out.
What’s Top of Mind
I’m switching it up this week to talk about something I believe everyone should have some exposure to, even if just a small amount: Bitcoin. It hit fresh all-time highs over the weekend, and I wanted to take a moment to highlight the asset. Despite its growth, Bitcoin is still a very nascent technology, and most people I talk to still don’t own any.
If you know me personally, you’ve probably had at least one conversation with me about Bitcoin (realistically, it’s probably more like a dozen). Here are a few things I tend to focus on:
Fixed supply – There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in existence. I believe this supply-and-demand dynamic creates an interesting setup for asymmetric risk/reward. As supply issuance decreases and demand increases through adoption, the potential for high returns grows.
Decreased reliance on intermediaries – With Bitcoin, I can send any amount to anyone, anytime, with settlement completed in minutes, not days. I don’t need a third party like Western Union or a bank. Just a phone and internet access. Sure, apps like Zelle or Venmo exist, but those still rely on banks and don’t settle instantly. And sometimes, you pay extra fees just to access your own money faster.
Growing adoption by individuals, institutions, and even countries – Interest in Bitcoin continues to rise. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which launched in January 2024, reached $1 billion in assets under management within its first week. As of July 11, it’s sitting around $83 billion. Greater accessibility through additional trusted firms could bring even more participants to the space.
Diversification and inflation hedge potential – While I don’t think there is enough historical data for a strong argument as a risk diversifier or as an inflation hedge, Bitcoin’s uniqueness makes logical sense to me as a non-correlated asset that shouldn’t be affected by the same debasing as traditional currencies. This part’s more of a gut feeling, but one supported more often than not by what we’ve seen so far, even if 16 years of history isn’t enough to draw firm conclusions.
Now, you might be wondering:
“Hey Jeff, if you own Bitcoin, aren’t you just trying to pump it so the price goes higher and you can sell?”
I mean... maybe? But I’d argue that’s no different from someone who owns a bunch of NVDA shares and talks about how AI will reshape the world for decades to come and that NVIDIA, as the leader in GPUs, will be at $500/share by 2027. We all talk our own book, and that’s okay. Putting your money where your mouth is and expressing your beliefs is natural.
Don’t just take my word for it. Firms like Fidelity, VanEck, and tastycrypto (my personal favorite) are putting out compelling research on why Bitcoin deserves a spot in your portfolio. Sure, they have a financial incentive to pull you into their ecosystem, but all of the performance data is public and verifiable for you to review yourself.
I’m not saying to put a huge chunk of your net worth into Bitcoin. No one knows where price will be in a week, a month, or a year. The path to $120k hasn’t been a straight line, and there has been plenty of volatility on the way. But the risk/reward is there. Having even a small amount of Bitcoin in your pocket could prove to be worth it.
If you’re curious about getting started with Bitcoin, or if you totally disagree with everything I just said, reply back. I’m always game to talk more crypto.
Thanks for reading this week!
If something sparked your interest — or you’ve got a hot take of your own — hit reply. I read every email.
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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.
