Why Patience Matters Right Now

Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Around the Market

Mixed signals as markets digest headlines

U.S. equity markets closed a mixed week with modest losses as investors weighed a combination of earnings, macro developments, and rising geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 (via SPY) finished down 0.5%, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) declined nearly 1% as market breadth weakened. The pullback came amid renewed concerns over tariff threats targeting European trading partners, which stirred risk aversion and sparked rotation into other assets like gold and silver, both of which climbed to record levels.

Technology stocks were a notable drag midweek, with the Nasdaq experiencing its steepest slide in weeks as investors rotated out of mega cap names and assessed export restrictions and regulatory headwinds. Despite solid earnings, financials and banks showed mixed price action, contributing to increased sector dispersion.

Even with the negative weekly performance in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, pockets of strength emerged. Chipmakers and semiconductor names rebounded late in the week, helping lift sentiment, while small cap stocks continued to outperform. The Russell 2000 (IWM) pushed to fresh highs, reflecting a broader rotation away from large cap growth.

At this point, much of the hesitation appears tied to macro uncertainty rather than earnings or fundamentals. Markets are still digesting incoming economic data and adjusting expectations around the path of interest rates this year. Recent inflation readings showed continued progress, but not enough to fully remove doubt around the timing and pace of potential rate cuts. Meanwhile, labor market data continues to suggest gradual cooling rather than sharp deterioration. And who knows what happens when it comes to geopolitics. As a result, traders appear more selective, favoring shorter term positioning and reduced risk exposure.

Looking ahead, markets remain sensitive to upcoming earnings releases, geopolitical developments, and policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• Inflation PCE Price Index & Personal Income and Outlays (Thu 1/22 8:30a ET)

• S&P Global US Flash PMI (Fri 1/23 9:45a ET)

• US Durable Goods Orders (Mon 1/26 8:30a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Netflix NFLX (Tue 1/20 after close)

• GE Aerospace GE (before open Thu 1/22)

• Intel INTC (Thu 1/22 after close)

• General Motors GM (before open Tue 1/27)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

What the 10 year Treasury Note is doing right now

Over the past few years, whether or not you follow the news closely, you’ve likely heard a lot about interest rates. It has been about a month since I last checked in on it, but my attention is back on the 10 year Treasury Note (/ZN).

During the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds target rate by 0.25%. At the time, ZN was trading just above 112. Last Friday, however, price broke below the low tick from the day of that meeting and closed convincingly lower, with follow through the next session. With that, the corresponding yield has risen from roughly 4.15% to around 4.28%.

From a technical perspective, there may be some support near the price imbalance created on August 1 of last year. If that level fails and price closes below 111, ZN could be positioned for further downside. This zone may prove important in the broader context of how the yield curve evolves. If yields continue to trade higher, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Fed to sustain a cutting cycle in the current market environment.

This is one worth keeping tabs on as we head into next week’s FOMC meeting and see how price action develops.

What’s Top of Mind

Lessons from a season of small improvements

The Chicago Bears’ season came to an end in the divisional round of the playoffs this past weekend. It was a year full of incredible moments, even if the magic faded late. Their turnaround had me reflecting on what actually drove their success and whether there were lessons I could apply to my own personal development.

The Bears’ jump from a 5–12 record last season to an 11–6 playoff run, including their first postseason win in 15 years, was not just about talent or scheme. Sports journalists consistently pointed to a cultural shift driven by head coach Ben Johnson’s leadership and the mindset he demanded from his players. From day one, the emphasis was on accountability, honesty, and preparation. Players were expected to own mistakes, understand their role, and focus on what they could control. That clarity removed noise and replaced it with purpose.

Reporters also highlighted the team’s composure and mental toughness, particularly in close games. Rather than chasing big moments on every play, players focused on the next snap, the next assignment, the next rep. That mindset allowed them to stack small wins across practices, quarters, and games. Over a full season, those small wins compounded into confidence, trust, and consistency, eventually leading to an NFL record for comeback wins when trailing with under two minutes to play.

So what can we take from that kind of turnaround?

In trading, career development, and personal life, the biggest breakthroughs rarely come from dramatic changes. They come from systems. Breaking large goals into manageable steps creates momentum without overwhelm. For a trader, that might mean focusing on one setup, improving position sizing, or journaling every trade honestly. Not trying to win every day, but trying to execute well every day. Over time, disciplined execution does more for results than any single big trade ever could.

For my own trading, I’m focusing on position sizing combined with setup quality. That means one contract for a “C” setup, two contracts for a “B” setup, and three contracts for an “A” setup. I’ve also decided to pass on “C” setups entirely for now to practice patience and reduce overtrading.

Professionally, the same principle applies. Career growth accelerates when you focus on incremental skill building, seek direct feedback, and take responsibility for outcomes rather than deflecting blame. Like the Bears’ players, clarity around expectations allows energy to be spent on improvement instead of guesswork. Small upgrades in communication, preparation, and follow through compound into trust and opportunity.

In personal life, these traits show up in relationships, health, and financial well being. Consistency beats intensity. Showing up for workouts even when motivation is low. Having honest conversations early instead of letting resentment build. Making modest financial decisions that support long term stability rather than chasing short term gratification. None of these changes feel transformational in the moment, but over months, they reshape identity.

The Bears didn’t flip a switch overnight. They committed to character traits that supported progress: accountability, presence, preparation, and patience. Over the course of a year, those incremental changes created a meaningful turnaround. It’s a reminder that sustained growth is not about doing everything at once. It’s about doing the right small things consistently and trusting that the results will follow.

So if progress ever feels stalled, it can be helpful to pause and refocus on one or two traits that set you on this path in the first place.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.