Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Watching the Chicago Marathon on Sunday, I found myself thinking about the people along the course, cheering on runners, holding signs, and ringing bells. Since I'm from Chicago, there's always a reason to tune in. This year, I kept coming back to a question: What do those cheers mean to the person running past?

I've never run a full marathon, but I've run 13 half marathons. Even with those races behind me, I'd struggle to explain what the crowd contributed. I can tell you a finishing time or describe how training went. Accounting for encouragement is harder.

You can prepare for the distance, plan your pace, and think through what you'll eat and drink and when. You can expect people to cheer. But you can't know which bit of encouragement will reach you, or what you'll need when it does.

I wonder whether part of its value is the interruption. When you're tired, your attention might narrow to the same questions: How much farther until the next mile marker? Can I hold this pace? Why does this feel so hard?

A voice from outside that conversation could give you something else to focus on for a few seconds. Maybe hearing someone cheer makes you feel that your effort is being recognized, even by someone who knows nothing about your race.

The miles ahead are still there. Your legs are still tired. But for a moment, your attention might shift from monitoring every uncomfortable feeling to taking in the people around you.

Maybe that helps with the next stretch. Maybe you appreciate it and keep running at exactly the same pace. I can't tell you how many seconds either is worth. I'm more interested in whether the experience feels different.

Encouragement doesn't have to change the result to change how the effort feels in the moment.

Of course, the same words won't land the same way every time. You might welcome them at one point and barely register them at another. That's part of what makes crowd support difficult to anticipate. Knowing it will be there doesn't tell you what it will mean when you hear it.

I think about that outside running, too. Imagine being stuck on a project and getting a message from someone who remembers you've been working on it. They ask how it's going. You may have no progress to report, and their message doesn't resolve the problem. But knowing someone remembered could make it easier to talk about where you're stuck, instead of waiting until you have a finished result to share.

That possibility makes me think about the other side of the exchange, too. As the person sending the message, you might never hear whether it helped. Like a spectator cheering for a runner who passes by, you may get very little feedback. It's easy to underestimate what you offered when there's no obvious change to point to.

But you don't have to wait for a result to recognize someone’s effort. You can always send a quick check-in and let someone know you're rooting for them.

Stocks finished mixed as enthusiasm around AI competed with higher oil prices and elevated Treasury yields.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs Tuesday as technology stocks rallied and oil and yields eased. That momentum faded Wednesday as long-term yields resumed their climb. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed agreement on the quarter-point rate increase but differing views on whether it addressed energy-price risks or demand-driven inflation.

Thursday brought the sharpest pressure on technology stocks. Crude oil jumped as renewed Middle East tensions and hurricane-related disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico raised supply and inflation concerns. Semiconductor stocks led the technology selloff. Stocks recovered Friday ahead of third-quarter earnings.

Monday brought another mixed session. Oil climbed after weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia, while the Treasury market was closed for Indigenous Peoples' Day. Technology and small-cap stocks declined as investors awaited inflation data and corporate results.

Across the Tuesday-through-Monday window, SPY gained 0.4%, while QQQ fell 1.3% and IWM dropped 1.9%.

This week's focus turns to Wednesday's CPI report, followed Thursday by PPI and retail sales. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Wednesday, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing scheduled Thursday.

Key market moves this past week:

T-Mobile US $TMUS ( ▲ 1.32% ) spent the past few weeks building a floor around $161. The lows came on September 22 ($161.21), September 23 ($161.14), and October 2 ($160.81). It bounced off that floor to an intraday high of $171.80 on Thursday. Then SpaceX announced an agreement to acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses from Grain Management, reportedly valued at $8 billion. By Friday, the floor was gone.

The stock gapped down Friday and closed at $148.58, down 13.3% on roughly 19 million shares. That was more than three times its 20-day average volume, and it closed just 68 cents above the day's low. Buyers couldn't sustain a recovery into the close.

The slide started earlier, too. It closed at $188.02 on September 3, putting Friday's close 21% below that level in about five weeks. The 50-day moving average around $174 and the 200-day around $190 remain well overhead.

The gap is my map. It runs from $156.89 to $167.92, and the old $161 floor sits inside it. If price bounces into the $157 to $161 area and stalls, I'll read that as broken support turning into resistance. I'll consider the short side, with Friday's low at $147.90 as the first reference.

Monday brought an initial bounce after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $170 target. But I care more about where the bounce stops than whether it happens. A close back above $160.81 would reclaim the lower edge of the old base and invalidate my clean breakdown read. A move toward the gap's upper edge near $168 would make me reconsider whether Friday's selloff was an overreaction.

If implied volatility remains elevated when I evaluate a trade, I'd consider a call credit spread with the short strike above $161 rather than buying puts at an inflated premium.

The next scheduled company event is earnings on October 28 after the close. FCC approval of the spectrum deal is still pending. I'll also watch $T ( ▼ 0.26% ) and $VZ ( ▲ 0.88% ) for related moves.

Not an exhaustive list, just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Know someone who'd rather think clearly than get more headlines? Send them this one.

Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.