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The S&P 500 $SPY ( ▼ 0.2% ) finished the holiday shortened week on a constructive note, although the path higher wasn't without a few bumps. The Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▼ 0.14% ) and Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.52% ) were unable to finish the week in positive territory. Trading began with broad strength before technology and semiconductor names came under pressure midweek as investors trimmed exposure to an AI trade that has started to feel stretched. Despite that rotation, buyers stepped back in, and the major indices remained near their recent highs heading into the July 4 holiday weekend. Monday's session extended that resilience as investors continued buying into market strength.

The biggest macro event was Thursday's June jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000, well below expectations for roughly 110,000 new jobs, while April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000. Weak labor data tends to cut both ways: supportive for rate cut expectations, but concerning for economic growth. Equities initially rallied following the release, but sellers quickly took control before buyers returned later in the session, helping stocks finish the shortened week on solid footing.

Looking ahead, the calendar shifts from macro to earnings. Investors will be watching Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes for additional insight into the Fed's thinking. June's meeting carried a hawkish tone, with several officials still projecting another rate hike later this year, making the minutes especially interesting in light of last week's softer labor data. Earnings season also begins to pick up with reports from PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines providing an early read on consumer demand before the major banks report next week. After a strong rally off the spring lows, the next move higher will likely depend on earnings guidance and confirmation that corporate fundamentals continue to justify today's valuations.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Cisco Systems $CSCO ( ▼ 1.58% ) ran from the $102 area to an all time high of $130.37 before sellers stepped in. The pullback since then has been steady, and price is now approaching a level I've had marked for a while: the top of the gap left behind on May 14, when the stock jumped from roughly $102 to $114 in a single session following a strong earnings report and raised guidance.

That gap has never been filled, and price is beginning to retrace into it. That changes how I'm thinking about an entry.

The AI networking infrastructure story hasn't changed. Cisco remains one of the pick and shovel plays for the data center buildout. BofA has a $150 price target on the stock, and shares gained nearly 19% in June alone. The fundamental backdrop is as strong as it's been in years. But fundamentals don't override price action, and a $12 open gap beneath current price is something the chart often resolves on its own timeline.

What I'm watching is whether price can break the current downtrend defined by lower highs and lower lows. Shares have already started leaking into the gap, but buyers haven't been aggressive enough to stop the selling. Ideally, I'd like to see higher highs and higher lows begin to develop, or a daily close back above the 5 EMA that also finishes above the prior day's high.

Until I see evidence that buyers are regaining control, I'm not interested in sizing up a bullish trade. That may not happen until the gap is completely filled. If and when that setup develops, I'll likely be looking at a bull put spread targeting a move back toward the $128 to $130 area, especially with IV rank elevated and a slight call skew still present.

The Dow hit another record high last week. June's weak jobs report, a holiday shortened schedule, and just three full trading days still managed to produce moves of more than 2% across the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. On paper, it was a week worth paying close attention to.

But none of that is what I actually remember.

I spent the week a time zone away from home, working from an older, slower laptop connected to a travel monitor about three quarters the size of my normal setup while also chasing around my 9 month old (he crawls now) between family time, feedings, and museum trips. There wasn't much of a schedule, and honestly, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way.

I also knew before the week even started that I wasn't going to get my normal amount of work done. Not the writing. Not the trade analysis. Not the back and forth with my AI workflow that I rely on every day. I know myself well enough to understand that when I'm away from my normal environment, my output naturally drops.

So I made the decision early. Instead of trying to force my normal workload in an environment that couldn't support it, I scaled the target down and focused on executing what I could at a high level.

That's position sizing, just applied to a workweek instead of a trade.

You don't trade your normal size in a low liquidity, wide spread environment. Not because your edge disappeared, but because the conditions changed the amount of risk you should take. The process stays the same. The discipline stays the same. Only the size changes to match what the environment can realistically support.

The same idea shows up outside of trading all the time. Cutting a planned hour at the gym down to a focused 20 minute workout after several nights of poor sleep is the same trade. You're not skipping the workout. You're sizing it to match what your body can actually handle that day.

Or maybe it's trimming a ten item Monday to do list down to the three things that truly matter because half the team is out and your calendar has already been blown up. Same decision. Different setting.

The mistake I've made before, and the one I was trying to avoid last week, is treating a reduced environment as an excuse to keep operating at full size anyway. That usually means doing five things halfway instead of two things 100%.

The skill isn't pushing through a bad setup just to hit your normal number. It's being honest about your ceiling before you begin, then resizing the goal to match it so whatever you do accomplish still meets your own standard.

Smaller size. Same discipline.

That's the only trade I was trying to make.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.