Waiting for Clarity

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Around the Market

Markets consolidate as policy expectations recalibrate

It looks like we’re back to making all time highs, with the S&P 500 (via SPY) hitting a fresh one at $696.09 yesterday. With yesterday’s close at $695.16, the ETF finished up 1.1% on the week. Despite the new high in the S&P 500, equities were mixed overall, with modest momentum in SPY, choppy price action in QQQ, and significant buying in the Russell 2000 (IWM). That divergence may be signaling a more cautious tone under the surface.

Much of the hesitation appears to stem from ongoing recalibration around Fed policy expectations. Markets continue to price in multiple rate cuts this year, but the timing remains fluid, with the first cut now pushed to June. Economic data over the past week did little to force a major repricing, leaving fed funds rate expectations largely intact while reinforcing the idea that the Fed is not in a rush. While cuts are still expected later this year, the path looks slower and more conditional, keeping pressure on duration sensitive assets and driving continued price swings in rate sensitive equities.

With rotation occurring between equity indices, it may be difficult to build strong conviction in any single move. Markets appear to be consolidating gains, reassessing assumptions, and waiting for clearer signals. For now, price action suggests patience, as investors balance optimism around eventual rate cuts with the reality of a still tight policy backdrop.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• Producer Price Index PPI (Wed 1/14 8:30a ET)

• Consumer Retail Sales (Wed 1/14 8:30a ET)

• Supreme Court rulings, including potential decision regarding tariffs (Wed 1/14)*

*Court does not announce in advance what cases will be decided

Notable Earnings

• Goldman Sachs GS (before open Thu 1/15)

• Morgan Stanley MS (before open Thu 1/15)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

How traders are pricing risk before earnings

The bulk of earnings season is right around the corner, and while banks typically kick things off, I’m keeping an eye on Netflix (NFLX), which is set to report after the bell next Tuesday, 1/20. Analysts expect modest earnings per share growth of around $0.55 for the quarter, alongside continued double digit revenue growth reflecting resilient demand and recent price adjustments. This report comes after a challenging 2025 marked by stock volatility, a roughly 30% pullback from last year’s highs of $134.12, and lingering investor concerns around execution and margin pressure. Also in focus is the recently announced acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) in December.

With a stock that has been beaten down like this, traders may be looking for a potential long setup. In the options market, out of the money calls are priced richer than equidistant out of the money puts, suggesting traders are assigning more risk to the upside. With earnings approaching, implied volatility rank is elevated at 45, making NFLX a reasonable candidate for short premium strategies.

For a bullish trade into earnings, or for those willing to hold defined risk through the event, selling a short put spread could be considered. This structure benefits from an upward move in the stock as well as a post earnings volatility crush if risk is held through the announcement.

What’s Top of Mind

Why you’re the best investment to buy

About two years out of college, I decided I wanted to change careers and go to medical school. By most measures, I was in a good place. A good job, great colleagues, friends in the same town, and family less than 90 minutes away. Still, I decided this was the investment I wanted to make. I had not taken the prerequisites for medical school, so I quit my job and enrolled in an accelerated program at Northwestern University.

Fast forward a couple of years. After taking the MCAT, volunteering at a clinic, and shadowing several doctors, I received all rejection letters after two rounds of applications.

You could say I failed to reach the ultimate goal of medical school. But I gained far more than I lost during that year. Knowledge, including my first exposure to organic chemistry, which was incredibly difficult but a meaningful mental challenge. Strong friendships, some of which I still maintain today. And a new perspective. Even though I didn’t reach the destination I had planned for, taking the leap itself was not as daunting as I had imagined, even though I ended up largely where I started.

Now to the present day.

Last week, I read the line, “Never think twice about investments in yourself.” (h/t Sahil Bloom). It immediately brought me back to that period of my life. So many things that quietly compound over time look like expenses in the moment. Fitness. Quality food. Books. Therapy. Learning a new skill or returning to school. Taking time to reset your mind. None of these show up neatly on a balance sheet, but the return is undeniable.

When you invest in yourself consistently, you gain energy. You feel better physically and mentally. You show up more focused, more patient, and more resilient. That version of you performs better across every area of life, from work and relationships to creativity and decision making. The ROI shows up everywhere, just not all at once.

The challenge is not understanding this. Equally challenging is building the habit.

Most self investment habits are uncomfortable at first. Going to the gym when motivation is low. Choosing a healthier meal when convenience is calling. Reading ten pages instead of scrolling. Showing up to a class or group when staying home would be easier. The gap between intention and consistency is where most people get stuck.

That is why small steps matter. You don’t need a complete overhaul. You need repeatable actions that are easy enough to do on your worst days. A ten minute walk. One workout per week. One chapter. One journal entry. One check in with yourself. Small actions reduce friction, and over time, they compound into something meaningful.

It’s also worth remembering that investing in yourself does not require spending a lot of money. Walking is free. Libraries exist. YouTube offers endless high quality education. Community classes, accountability groups, and shared goals can lower costs while increasing follow through. Time and intention matter more than price.

You don’t have to do it alone. Habits stick better with accountability, shared progress, and someone reminding you why you started on the days you forget. Whether that’s a friend, a group, a coach, or simply saying your plan out loud, support changes the math.

I talk a lot about trading and investing, but it’s always worth buying stock in yourself.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.