Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!
On deck this week…
Headlines vs. price action and volatility that is sticking around
Does the market even care about labor right now?
COIN at a crossroads
Spring cleaning your edge
Around the Market
Relief rallies, oil spikes, and why the tape keeps humbling bias
Right now, volatility is a feature, not a bug. Last week reminded us of that.
We saw an aggressive relief rally into Wednesday as early earnings optimism and tech momentum carried the tape. But the momentum stalled. Weakness crept in by Thursday as the Nvidia hangover took hold and fresh tariff concerns triggered a flight to safety.
Then the weekend headlines were heavy. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran dominated the tape, sparking a massive 12% jump in oil at its peak. From an equity perspective, many likely expected a bloodbath Monday. Instead, the market showed why it’s so hard to predict. After a deep gap down, the S&P 500 (via SPY) and the Nasdaq (via QQQ) clawed back to flat. Why? Defense and energy stocks acted as a ballast, while dip buyers bet that geopolitical shocks are usually short lived. However, overnight into Tuesday already looked gloomy.
When does volatility subside? No one knows, and the tape doesn't care about your bias. Trade the price in front of you.
Tactical Focus
The Sector Split: Watch the divergence between IWM and tech. Small caps were showing relative strength as the risk off trade rotated.
Energy as a Hedge: With the Strait of Hormuz in play, crude volatility is your primary macro indicator. Once oil volatility dips, that is your signal tensions may be de-escalating.
The Jobs Catalyst: Friday brings Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) along with the Unemployment Rate. I still expect a binary reaction depending on how much the labor market is cooling.

Daily chart of SPY over 1Y time interval
Key market moves this past week:
Closing Price (Monday) | Week/Week Change | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
$686.38 | $3.99 | 0.6% | |
$608.09 | $6.68 | 1.1% | |
$263.81 | $3.32 | 1.3% | |
$21.44 | $0.43 | 2.0% | |
$5,312 | $86 | 1.6% | |
$117.44 | -$0.15 | -0.1% | |
$98.53 | $0.75 | 0.8% | |
$71.23 | $4.92 | 7.4% | |
$69,300 | $4,500 | 6.9% |
The Week Ahead
Economic Calendar
ISM Services PMI (Wed 3/4 10:00a ET)
Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate NFP (Fri 3/6 8:30a ET)
Consumer Retail Sales (Fri 3/6 8:30a ET)
Notable Earnings
Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.
On My Radar
Can Coinbase stabilize as crypto finds support?
Coinbase (COIN) is currently grappling with a sharp reset in sentiment, down roughly 20% year to date and nearly 60% since its all time high in July of last year as crypto markets digest heavy geopolitical headlines. The tape shows a stock trying to find its footing near the $170 level after a punishing drawdown to start 2026.

Daily chart of COIN over 1Y time interval
Despite the noise, the structural story may be shifting. Coinbase is no longer just a retail playground. It is evolving into a crypto infrastructure play, recently rolling out 24/5 commission free trading for US stocks and ETFs. This diversification is a data point that should not be ignored. Additionally, Bitcoin’s defense of the $65,000 area suggests seller exhaustion may be setting in. If BTC stabilizes here, COIN has a clear path to reclaim lost ground.
With Monday’s close now above the 5, 13, and 22 EMAs and a recent 5/13 EMA bullish crossover, positive momentum appears to be building. With IV rank elevated around 50, a trader bullish on the stock may consider selling a put vertical. This strategy primarily benefits from an up move, but the passage of time and decreasing volatility can also help the position.
The $225 to $230 zone acted as support at the beginning of the year but has turned into resistance if price is able to make it back there. There are also price imbalances along the way, so traders should be nimble if momentum starts to fade.
Tactical Focus
Support & Resistance: Watch the $165 to $170 zone closely. A failure here opens the door back to the 52 week low near $139.
Bitcoin Correlation: BTC needs to hold the $62,200 range to give COIN the green light for a monthly rally.
Infrastructure Pivot: Monitor adoption of the new 24 hour stock trading. It is a bid for stability in a choppy sea.
What’s Top of Mind
The 80/20 audit for time, energy, and attention
It is wild that we are already two months into the year. We have flipped the calendar to March, baseball season is quickly approaching, and Daylight Saving Time is right around the corner. This is usually when people start thinking about spring cleaning. Closets get cleaned out. Storage bins get reorganized. Things that once felt essential suddenly feel like clutter.
This year, in addition to cleaning out closets, I’m focused on tidying up my priorities as Q2 approaches.
Our family is about to step into a meaningful shift in routine. It is a good change. An exciting one for me personally. But even positive change requires adaptation. And adaptation requires intention.
Family will always come first. That is the anchor. But in the day to day, I tend to operate across five or six different lanes. Trading. Writing. A few niche projects that require consistent effort and patience. Some offer small, incremental rewards. Others have the potential for outsized returns but demand deeper focus and longer stretches of uninterrupted work.
Lately, I’ve been asking myself a simple question rooted in the 80/20 principle: What are the 20% of actions that have historically driven 80% of my results? Where am I grinding for marginal gains that feel productive but are not truly impactful? Which 20% items deserve the majority of my effort?
This mindset applies almost universally.
Professionally, it might mean identifying the one or two projects that truly move the needle instead of filling your week with low leverage tasks. It might mean tightening your meeting schedule or delegating work that does not require your specific skill set. If you are a trader, it might mean doubling down on your highest probability setups and eliminating marginal trades that drain mental capital.
Personally, it could look like protecting device free time with your family instead of letting notifications fracture your attention. It could mean simplifying commitments and saying no to social obligations that do not align with your season of life.
Another layer is energy management, not just time management. When during the day are you most focused? Are you spending that window on shallow work instead of deep work? Are you giving your best energy to email and your leftover energy to your health or relationships?
Finally, audit your habits. Small routines compound. Which ones are reinforcing the person you want to become? Which ones are subtle forms of clutter?
Execution will not be perfect. Big transitions rarely are. The next few months may feel uneven as we find a new rhythm. But adapting a thoughtful plan is far easier than operating reactively each day.
Spring cleaning is not just about clearing space. It’s about choosing, with intention, what deserves it.
Tactical Focus
Audit the Grind: Identify one daily or weekly task that feels like work but offers little upside. Cut it.
The 80/20 Professional Filter: Focus on the two clients or projects that truly move the needle. Maintain without over servicing low value accounts.
Trade Your Time Like Capital: You wouldn’t risk 10% of your account for a 1% gain. Don’t risk two hours of family time for a low impact email thread.
Thanks for reading this week!
If something sparked your interest — or you’ve got a hot take of your own — hit reply or find me at [email protected]. I read every email.
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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.


