Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

After an early stumble, the S&P 500 regains confidence heading into earnings season

The S&P 500 (via SPY) finished the week at $671.30, marking a modest gain of roughly 1.2%. After a sharp drop earlier in the month, it seems equity markets have found firmer footing. Intraday trading ranges were wide throughout the week, but investors appear to be rebuilding confidence in equities, especially with Monday’s push back toward the all-time high of $673.95.

Sentiment improved on two fronts. First, traders grew more comfortable as concerns about a potential banking-credit kerfuffle eased, with major banks continuing to post strong earnings. Second, talk of tariff escalation subsided temporarily and rate-cut expectations gained traction (note the strength in bonds over the past week). This may be giving investors reason to lean back in.

Other key market moves this past week:

*Data release may be delayed due to federal government shutdown

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Netflix leads a busy week of earnings as traders position for post-report volatility

Earnings season kicked off last week, but this is when it really starts to accelerate. One of the big names I’m watching is Netflix (NFLX). Analysts expect the company to post revenue of around $11.51 billion and earnings per share near $6.96, reflecting year-over-year growth of roughly 17% and 27%, respectively. Much of the optimism centers on Netflix’s evolving business model. Price increases, an expanding ad-supported tier, and a content slate packed with big-ticket titles are seen as key growth drivers.

Netflix’s market capitalization sits around $525 billion, placing it among the top 20 largest companies. That’s a big number, and it takes significant capital flow to really move the stock. Implied volatility rank is elevated at ~36 going into earnings, which is typical behavior for stocks as the earnings date gets closer. For high-priced stocks like these, I prefer defined-risk strategies. Traders looking to take advantage of the sharp drop in volatility that often follows earnings might consider selling an iron condor. It’s a directionally-neutral setup that benefits primarily from a decrease in volatility once the event risk passes.

Perspective, patience, and investing in what truly matters

Traders like to think they’re long-term investors. That is, until the market chops sideways for a few weeks. We talk about patience, conviction, and the value of holding through volatility, but lately I’ve had the privilege of learning what real long-term investing looks like.

Last month, my wife and I welcomed our son into the world. He’s reminded me of the importance of understanding time horizons when it comes to investing time, effort, and money. In the markets, I measure everything in days or weeks, sometimes hours or even minutes. But with him, I’m also thinking in decades. The “why” behind what I do means more. Every early morning, every late-night session, every calculated risk. It’s all compounding toward something much bigger than any single trade.

I think I knew this already but it’s becoming clearer and clearer: parenthood has a way of reframing your definition of return on investment. It’s no longer just about chasing short-term gains but also about building a foundation that endures. Some days, the market’s noise feels less important. Other days, the lessons from trading (discipline, emotional control and resilience) show up in the nursery at 3 a.m.

Like any good investment, there will likely be some drawdowns. I foresee some sleepless nights, some moments of doubt, and plenty of adapting on-the-fly. But I know there will also be exponential growth, both in him and in my patience, gratitude, and perspective.

When you step back far enough, the charts always smooth out. The long-term trend matters more than the day-to-day swings. That’s true in markets, and it’s true in life. There will likely be plenty of volatility and uncertainty, but this is one trade I’ll be holding forever.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

Like what you’re reading?
Forward this to a friend or share the newsletter link to help grow the HtB community.

Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.