Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week ended with a lot to process. Friday's jobs report came in stronger than expected, showing the labor market may be heating up at exactly the wrong time. Inflation hasn't come down enough to give the Fed cover to cut, and the market continues to pull forward rate hike probabilities. The CME FedWatch tool reflects the shift: rate hike probabilities are creeping higher through 2026. Still unlikely, and while these probabilities are not forecasts and can change quickly, they provide insight into current market sentiment and positioning as inflation concerns persist.

The macro print only added to what was already a rough session. Broadcom’s post-earnings selloff continued Friday, pulling the semiconductor sector down with it. By the close, it was the biggest down day this year, with the Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▼ 0.3% ) absorbing the most damage. Monday brought buyers back, but the recovery stalled well short of reclaiming half of Friday's losses. It was the kind of bounce that keeps you measured, not confident. Whether it was a positioning unwind in semis or a broader macro risk-off move doesn't matter much. It was still painful for bulls.

Over the weekend, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, the most serious escalation since the April ceasefire. Ship traffic through the Strait remains limited, oil spiked overnight, and U.S. futures briefly turned negative before stabilizing. The recovery Monday is encouraging, but with energy supply routes remaining in question and oil back on the move, the inflation pass-through picture remains muddy.

This week puts the SpaceX IPO front and center. SPCX prices Thursday, June 11, and debuts on the Nasdaq Friday, June 12, potentially the largest IPO in history at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation. U.S. May CPI also drops Wednesday. Between the two, the back half of this week is where the action will be.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On June 2, Jensen Huang walked on stage at Computex alongside Marvell CEO Matt Murphy and said four words: "The next trillion-dollar company." Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▼ 4.65% ) surged 30% that session, its largest single-day gain on record, and extended into June 3, touching a new all-time high at $324.20.

Then the sector came apart. Broadcom's post-earnings guidance landed below the most aggressive expectations, triggered a broad chip selloff, and MRVL gave back 16% on June 5 alone, closing at around $263. Five sessions. Breakout, all-time high, sharp reversal. The stock bounced roughly 9% Monday as the broader chip sector recovered and the S&P 500 inclusion trade came into focus.

Here's where it gets interesting. Even after last week's selloff, MRVL is still roughly 28% above where it was trading before Huang spoke about it. The 52-week range is $61 to $324, and the stock is holding in the upper portion of that range. The AI networking and custom chip story did not change because of one rough week in semiconductors. Marvell guided 70% growth in its interconnect products just weeks ago, up from a prior guide of 50%.

The gap from the initial surge sits down near $225, so the first key level I'll be watching is Friday's low at $261. A decisive break there and $225 may come into view. With IV rank in the 80s and skew pointing to the upside, a bullish trader could consider selling a put spread. With strong selling at Tuesday’s open, though, patience is key. An additional factor: in the current market regime, I wouldn't expect volatility to contract meaningfully during an upside move, so I view this as primarily a directional trade.

This week, the country is running hot on two stories at once. On June 12, SpaceX rings the bell on what could be the largest IPO in stock market history, and the U.S. Men's National Team kicks off the World Cup on home soil against Paraguay. Same day. Same energy. Full buy-in from a country expecting big things from both.

I'll be honest: I'm skeptical of both trades.

SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation at roughly 94x revenue. For context, that valuation puts it in the neighborhood of Meta and about $700 billion more than Berkshire Hathaway, companies that spent decades in the market earning those multiples. SpaceX is raising $75 billion on the back of Starlink's growth story and a vision of what the company becomes. That vision may be completely right. But the market isn't pricing what SpaceX is today. It's pricing what investors believe it will become. That gap between story and fundamentals is where the risk lives.

The USMNT parallel is hard to ignore. This is supposed to be the golden generation. One of the best squads ever assembled, home crowd behind them, Pochettino running the show. Christian Pulisic, our version of a high-multiple stock, is headlining the whole thing. And yet. He just broke a nearly five-month goal drought with a goal in a friendly against Senegal, and Tim Howard immediately said the scrutiny won't stop. One goal in a tune-up doesn't suddenly close the gap between the hype and the scoreboard. As much as I want to believe, I think the USMNT is unlikely to get past the Round of 16. The group is winnable. What comes after it probably isn't. At the risk of bringing on some hate, I'm operating with a near-zero percent chance the U.S. wins the World Cup, with a Round of 16 exit as the most likely outcome.

Here's where both stories converge: the crowd always prices the narrative loudest right before the results have to show up. That's not cynicism. The Starlink thesis is real, Pulisic's talent is real, and home field matters. But none of that automatically closes the gap between expectation and execution. Compelling stories make expensive trades. And the moment everything feels historic is exactly when discipline matters most.

This week offers a good gut check, and it doesn't stop at your brokerage account. If you're about to make a major purchase, a house, a car, a renovation, and the excitement in the room is at peak volume, that feeling is the risk. Discipline is introducing a 24-hour pause precisely because the hype is loudest in the moment.

The same applies if a recruiter just called from a company whose name makes your pulse jump. Before you blow up a stable situation, ask yourself: am I excited about the actual role, the team, the day-to-day work, and the career opportunities, or am I buying the brand? The logo on the offer letter is narrative. Everything else is the scoreboard.

When the whole country is leaning in the same direction, buying IPO shares, buying jerseys, buying the story, that's exactly when it's worth asking: am I making an investment, or am I making a bet? And if I am making a bet, is the expected value in my favor?

This isn’t to tell you not to make the leap. It’s just a reminder that big expectations should come with equally big discipline.

This week, America is buying two things it wants to be great. We'll know soon enough if that shows up on the scoreboard.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.