The Market Feels Chaotic. Here's What Matters

Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Around the Market

Energy spikes, soft labor data, and shifting geopolitical narratives

Volatility is not just a metric. It continues to be what the market expects these days. Last week started with a relief rally as the bulls attempted to front run a peaceful resolution. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) marched higher into Wednesday, feeding on the hope of a “de escalation” narrative that never arrived.

The weekend reality check was a cold shower. Attacks on Iranian military targets, oil producers cutting back output, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring, with front month futures peaking at $119.48. Friday’s weak jobs data, shedding 92,000 roles (+59,000 expected), added the specter of stagflation to the mix. Though we are nowhere near stagflationary levels, the data is trending in the wrong direction. We closed the week weak, with IWM lagging as small caps felt the weight of rising energy costs that appear to have pushed yields higher for now.

Yet Monday delivered a surprising reversal. After an initial gap down, equities clawed their way back into the green. The catalyst? Geopolitical optimism. Headlines suggesting the conflict’s timeline may be shorter than feared sparked a late day squeeze.

Focus Points

• The Macro Data Pivot: Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s PCE inflation data, combined with Friday’s job openings data, will dictate whether the Fed is truly stuck.

• Energy as a Hedge: Watch crude price levels and volatility. If oil sustains triple digits, inflation remains a thorn in the market’s side. Oil volatility remains the ultimate tell for cooling tensions.

• Earnings Watch: Oracle (Tue) and Adobe (Thu) provide a pulse check on infrastructure spending and AI sentiment.

Key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• Consumer Price Index CPI (Wed 3/11 8:30a ET)

• Inflation PCE Price Index & Personal Income and Outlays (Fri 3/13 8:30a ET)

• US Durable Goods Orders (Fri 3/13 8:30a ET)

• GDP Growth Rate - 2nd Estimate (Fri 3/13 8:30a ET)

• Job Openings JOLTs (Fri 3/13 10:00a ET)

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Fri 3/13 10:00a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Oracle ORCL (Tue 3/10 after close)

• Adobe ADBE (Thu 3/12 after close)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

AI spending optimism meets investor skepticism for Oracle

Oracle (ORCL) steps into the earnings arena after Tuesday’s close. The tape has been unforgiving lately. Since the September peak, the stock has been stuck in reverse, shedding nearly 60% as the market questions whether massive AI spending will actually translate to the bottom line. Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.70 on record revenue of $16.92 billion. The numbers themselves are secondary to the narrative.

The focus is squarely on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Management previously guided for 40% to 44% growth here. Last quarter’s Remaining Performance Obligations sat at a staggering $523 billion. That is a big backlog, but the market is tired of promises. It wants to see that backlog convert into realized cash flow.

Options pricing suggests a 10% swing in either direction. In a tape that has been punishing software, ORCL is guilty until proven innocent. Watch the 200 week moving average. If it holds, we may have a floor. If not, the trap door may open.

Options traders should consider keeping position sizes small into earnings. IV rank near 88 is stretched, which means you are getting paid to take the risk, but an outsized move becomes far more likely. There is a reason volatility is that high.

As for me, I’m staying on the sidelines until I see a clear trend emerge.

Focus Points

• Cloud Revenue Growth: Anything under 40% will likely be viewed as a failure of the AI thesis.

• CapEx Outlook: Higher spending on data centers is expected, but investors need clarity on the margin impact through 2027.

• OpenAI/SoftBank Updates: Any commentary on the Stargate project or contract durability will drive the narrative.

What’s Top of Mind

John Wooden’s timeless lesson on managing emotions when the world feels chaotic

With the NCAA Tournaments right around the corner, I found myself thinking about one of the greatest coaches of all time, John Wooden. Wooden famously created the Pyramid of Success, and one of the foundational blocks is Self Control. His definition is simple but powerful: practice self discipline and keep emotions under control. Good judgement and common sense are essential.

That idea feels especially relevant right now. The headlines have been loud. Every day seems to bring another alarming story or market moving development. It is easy to feel discouraged or reactive when the noise gets that intense.

But Wooden’s philosophy reminds us of something important. We cannot control the headlines. What we can control is how we respond to them.

In trading, self control might be the single most important skill you can develop. When volatility picks up and markets start moving quickly, it is tempting to abandon your plan and chase whatever seems to be working in the moment. We have all felt that urge.

But the traders who last are the ones who stay grounded in their process.

Self control shows up when you accept a losing trade without immediately trying to win it back. It shows up when you take profits according to your plan rather than letting greed convince you to hold for just a little longer. Discipline prevents short term emotion from turning into long term damage.

If you hit your daily stop loss, close the laptop. Self control is knowing when the day is done.

The same principle applies in our personal lives. Right now it is incredibly easy to get pulled into the negativity of the news cycle. Self control might simply mean limiting how much of that you consume and choosing to spend more time on things that actually energize you.

It also shows up in everyday interactions. Taking a moment before reacting in a stressful conversation with your partner, family member, or friend can completely change the outcome of that moment. Stick to your gym routine or your sleep schedule even when it feels like the world is falling apart. Control the controllable.

Professionally, the ability to manage your emotions is just as valuable. Every workplace has moments of pressure, uncertainty, and frustration. Self control can be the difference between reacting defensively to feedback or using it as an opportunity to improve.

It can also be the pause that keeps you from sending the email you might regret five minutes later.

When colleagues stress about layoffs or corporate shifts, stay objective. Focus on the quality of your work and the consistency of your output.

Wooden believed that character reveals itself most clearly under pressure. In a world that feels increasingly chaotic, practicing self control might be one of the most powerful competitive advantages we have.

Focus Points

• The Gap: Success lives in the space between the stimulus and your response. Lengthen that gap.

• Internal Locus: You cannot control the Fed, the bracket upsets, or the news. You can control your plan and execution.

• Emotional Neutrality: Treat a winning trade and a losing trade with the same level of stoicism. Data over dopamine.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.