Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week started with a noticeably weaker tone as the S&P 500 $SPY ( ▲ 0.25% ), Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▲ 0.73% ), and Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.57% ) all traded under pressure following rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation concerns, and continued uncertainty around the Fed’s ability to meaningfully cut rates in 2026. Early in the week, investors appeared increasingly uncomfortable with the idea that economic growth remains resilient enough to keep inflation elevated, especially as long-duration yields stayed firm.

The tone shifted later in the week. Buyers stepped back into mega-cap tech following another strong earnings report from NVIDIA $NVDA ( ▲ 3.03% ), which helped stabilize sentiment around the AI trade and broader growth complex. While the reaction was not as explosive as prior quarters, the report reinforced the idea that AI-related spending remains strong despite broader macro concerns.

Markets also caught a tailwind heading into the holiday weekend as geopolitical headlines suggested the U.S. and Iran may again be moving closer toward some form of agreement framework. The positive news continued over the weekend. While the structural details remain unconfirmed, equity index futures rallied Sunday evening while oil sold off sharply, helping support risk appetite and easing some inflation fears tied to energy prices.

This week, investors will focus on PCE inflation data, consumer confidence, several key Fed speakers, and earnings from Salesforce and Costco.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Over the past three months, the price of oil has been in the news almost daily. This weekend was no exception, with a multitude of reports suggesting the U.S. and Iran may have reached some form of agreement that would help move oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That added to the selling pressure already building from last week, with WTI crude oil futures (/CLN6) falling to $89.41 yesterday, nearly $16 lower than last week’s highs.

Zooming out to the daily chart, the 50-day simple moving average has acted as support several times over the past month and a half. While it’s constructive to see more positive geopolitical headlines, I still believe oil prices have a floor that will remain elevated over the next few months. Even if an agreement is reached, it will likely take time for production capacity to return to pre-war levels, and many countries have already drawn down reserves significantly. That continues to support my longer-term bullish bias in oil.

There is still plenty of headline risk, and continued progress toward an agreement could lead to additional downside. To keep the position small, I’m looking at a put credit spread in the United States Oil Fund $USO ( ▼ 0.24% ) , a defined-risk options position that primarily benefits from a bullish move in price.

My favorite baseball team is the Chicago Cubs. Right now, they’re in the middle of a nine-game losing streak.

A month ago, they looked like one of the best teams in baseball. Now the pitching is unraveling, the offense has gone quiet, and the mood around the club feels completely deflated. It got me thinking about how people handle streaks, both losing and winning.

It’s just a game. I know that. But for the players living through it, the feelings are real. And honestly, the Cubs right now are a pretty accurate portrait of something everyone has experienced: a stretch where the effort stops matching the results, and you can’t quite pinpoint when things started going sideways.

Losing streaks never announce themselves. Things seem to be going well. Then, all of a sudden, you find yourself in a hole, struggling to climb out of it.

The real danger isn’t the losses themselves. It’s what the losses start making you do. You begin pressing. You tinker with things that never needed changing. You start making decisions from frustration instead of clarity. The Cubs are doing this in real time, shuffling the batting order and giving players days off. Usually, it doesn’t make much difference. The instinct to constantly switch things up when nothing is working is often the wrong move.

Before you overhaul anything, audit what drifted. In your career, that might mean identifying the one habit or routine you quietly abandoned during a busy stretch. In trading, it’s usually discipline around entries or position sizing. At home, maybe you’re not quite as engaged as you used to be. The scoreboard might still look fine, but something underneath has slipped. That’s usually what the slump is trying to reveal.

Either way, the answer is almost never structural. It’s behavioral. And behavioral drift is fixable, especially if you assess yourself honestly.

On the other side, winning streaks carry their own trap, and it’s sneakier. Confidence builds, which is earned. But eventually confidence can turn into complacency. It’s the reason you stop doing the small things well. The Cubs were playing elite baseball not long ago. Somewhere along the way, the discipline softened. That’s how it usually happens. Results are a lagging indicator of the work that came before them. By the time everything feels easy, you’ve often already stopped doing what made it easy in the first place.

The Cubs will win again. Hopefully soon. Not because they blow up the roster, but because the talent is still there. They just need to stop making decisions from panic and return to doing the small things right, one game at a time.

Shrink the target when nothing is working. Don’t wait for the grand slam. Manufacture the run. Just do simple better.

And when things are going well, keep the pre-game routine. Preparation does not become optional just because the scoreboard looks good.

If you’re interested in specific tactics that I believe help during losing streaks, read on below.

Traders use several tactics when working through drawdowns. Here are a few that I believe translate from trading to professional and personal aspects of our lives.

Sizing down positions → Reduce your surface area: When a trader sizes down, they're limiting exposure while they figure out what's wrong. The personal equivalent: temporarily say no to anything non-essential. Don't take on a new project, don't make a big financial decision, don't start a new commitment. You're not quitting. You're reducing the number of things that can go wrong while you figure out how to turn things around.

Pulling back to paper trading → Low-stakes reps: Some traders go back to simulated trading to rebuild confidence without real consequences. The personal version: find a low-stakes environment to rebuild your reps. Struggling with public speaking at work? Do it somewhere smaller first, e.g. a team meeting instead of the all-hands. Bad patch in your fitness routine? Don't go back at full intensity and blow yourself out. One workout, half the weight, no pressure to perform.

Reviewing the trade journal → Honest post-mortem, two weeks back: Traders go back to their journal to find where the drift started. For professionals: block 20 minutes and write down what your last two weeks actually looked like, not what you intended, but what you did. When did you go to bed? What did you eat? When did you last do the thing that usually recharges you? The slump started somewhere specific. Most people never look for it.

Talking to a mentor or trading desk → Phone a trusted person, not a yes-person: Traders in drawdowns often talk to someone who will be honest with them, not someone who will just validate them. The personal version of this is deliberate: go to the person in your life who will tell you something true, not comfortable. One honest conversation is worth ten pep talks.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.