The Calm Before the Fed

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Around the Market

SPY edges higher while markets brace for Wednesday

Traders came back from the break with some appetite for risk, inching the S&P 500 (via SPY) up 0.49% to a close of $683.63 on the week. Bulls were able to break the series of lower highs after last week’s push took the index past the November 12 high. But the start of this week has been less encouraging, with Monday closing below Friday’s low after selling kicked in right after the opening bell.

The biggest event left this year comes Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC releases minutes from the closed-door meetings where monetary policy is set, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s policy statement. This meeting also includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections with new inflation, GDP, and unemployment forecasts. I don’t expect traders to push a lot of chips in before the announcement, so equity indices may drift sideways until then. A 25 basis point cut in the fed funds rate is widely expected, which means the economic projections could be the real catalyst. Santa is right around the corner, and we should find out soon whether he’s delivering gold or coal for Christmas.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with Summary of Economic Projections - Fed Rate Decision and Press Conference (Wed 12/10 2:00p ET)

• Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate NFP (Tue 12/16 8:30a ET)

• Consumer Retail Sales (Tue 12/16 8:30a ET)

• S&P Global US Flash PMI (Tue 12/16 9:45a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Oracle ORCL (Wed 12/10 after close)

• Adobe ADBE (Wed 12/10 after close)

• Broadcom AVGO (Thu 12/11 after close)

• Lululemon Athletica LULU (Thu 12/11 after close)

• Costco COST (Thu 12/11 after close)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

A beaten down retail name with rising volatility

Retail season continues, and I am watching one of the big names always trying to bring fashion to fitness. It has been quite the ride for Lululemon (LULU) over the past two years, with the stock sliding from an all time high of $516.39 to a low of $159.25, a level not seen since March 2020.

Since hitting that September low, the stock has built a small uptrend with higher highs and slightly higher lows, pushing into the $180s. The chart has several gaps, most of them created around earnings releases that often sent the stock lower. These gaps can act as support or resistance, and in this case possibly resistance, so I will be watching to see if price can break through the gap near $198 from the last earnings call. There are also a few notable swing levels, including the June 23 low around $220 that could serve as resistance if the stock moves toward that area.

Earnings are Thursday after the close, which has driven IV rank to 75. IV rank measures volatility relative to the past year, and 75 is very elevated. I usually avoid placing trades when IV rank is this high, but some traders may look to sell a defined risk spread such as a bull put spread, bear call spread, or iron condor to take advantage of the inflated volatility.

What’s Top of Mind

The "messy middle" where the real work happens

As humans, we tend to want to rush to the “after” photo. We look at the IPO, the championship ring, or the polished final product, and we forget the path there wasn’t a straight line. But anyone in the trenches, whether building a business or trying to be 1% better than yesterday, knows the truth. Growth is usually incredibly tedious.

Real progress rarely feels like a highlight reel. It looks like repetitive tasks, invisible incremental changes, and long stretches where nothing seems to move. It’s the Tuesday morning where motivation is gone and all that is left is discipline. Or the Thursday afternoon where the weekend is close and you have to grind out the last few things on your weekly checklist.

When we focus too much on the destination, this "messy middle" can feel like failure or a setback. We obsess over the gap between where we are and where we want to be. But lately, I’ve been trying to remind myself to respect the momentary plateau and find ways to enjoy the process.

There is a bit of peace in accepting that you can't force the timeline. When you stop white-knuckling the outcome, you realize the struggle isn't an obstacle; it’s the path. That frustration you feel isn't a sign you're doing it wrong. That’s just the sensation of expanding your capacity.

I think about it like a long training block. When you’re in the middle of a twelve week program, you are tired, you are sore, and you feel like you are grinding gears with no progress. But if you zoom out, you see that the foundation has already been poured and now you are slowly building on top of it. The results don’t come from the one day you felt amazing. They come from the fifty days you showed up when you did not want to, and from the moments in between where you stumbled and kept moving anyway, eventually getting to one of those great days where training felt easy.

Sometimes, it helps to remind yourself to pause and appreciate the grit it takes just to keep showing up. And to find those small wins to celebrate even though it feels like you’re stuck in the mud. The summit is great, but you spend a lot more time on the climb. Every so often, stop, take a breath, and just enjoy the view. You might find that the process is actually pretty satisfying.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.