Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

On deck this week…

The equity melt up continues

A couple of Mag 7 earnings with a dash of macro events

Going nuclear on SMR

Don’t just do, do it with intention

Around the Market

The “Up >0.5%” voters take it again with the 1-week S&P change of +0.6%.

The S&P 500 (via SPY) is up about $4 compared to last week, closing at $628.77, and continues to push to new all-time highs for what is now a four-week streak. It wasn’t without some excitement, though. We saw:

Tuesday: A strong down day, dropping $6 and closing on its lows
Wednesday: A $5 midday selloff with a full recovery and then some
Thursday: Opening on the day’s lows and closing on the highs, up $4
Friday: Meh, down but nothing notable
Monday: Up about $3 in the morning session, but making a full round-trip and ending the day exactly unchanged

Small cracks are starting to show in the economic data, but there still appears to be an appetite to buy the dip. As long as that sentiment remains, equities could continue to drift higher. But at some point, stocks can't just keep going up, right?

Where do you think the S&P 500 will be next week?

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Daily chart of SPY over 1Y time interval

Other notable market moves since last week:

  • Volatility (VIX): Continued to fall, down 0.55 this week to 16.65

  • Gold: Showing positive momentum, especially Monday, back up to around $3,410

  • Bonds: Very strong on Monday, reaching approximately 113.25 and up 0.5% on the week

  • US dollar: Up on Tuesday but then weakened, ending at 97.85

  • Crude oil: Flat, closing at $65.78 on Monday

  • Bitcoin: Taking a breather since hitting an ATH of around $123,800 last Monday, now down to approximately $118,500

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

Notable Earnings

  • Tesla TSLA (Wed 7/23 after close)

  • Alphabet GOOGL (Wed 7/23 after close)

  • Intel INTC (Thu 7/24 after close)

  • Procter & Gamble PG (before open Tue 7/29)

  • Boeing BA (before open Tue 7/29)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

This week, I’m watching one of the hot nuclear stocks: NuScale Power (SMR). Since making a meaningful break to the upside mid-May, the price has almost tripled, reaching as high as $50.94 on Monday.

Daily chart of SMR over 1Y time interval

However, Monday formed a significant reversal candle at the all-time high, which could signal additional downside momentum. If the price breaks the prior high of $45.31 from June 16 and closes below it (we tapped it Monday afternoon and bounced a bit), I’d consider selling a bear call spread in the September monthly expiration. IV rank is elevated at around 50, which supports that setup.

This type of position would benefit from decreasing-to-neutral price, volatility decreasing (though I don’t expect much of a drop in the near term), and the passage of time. My usual exit criteria apply for short options positions: closing at 21 days to expiration or at 50% of the initial credit received. Note, earnings are on August 7. If I’m profitable by then, I’ll likely close the position before the announcement.

What’s Top of Mind

Over the past three months, there’s something specific I’ve been trying to work on in my day-to-day when it comes to trading: deliberate practice.

It’s not just about putting in hours. It’s about how you use those hours.

Think about a college or professional basketball player. They don’t walk into the gym and just start throwing up shots for two hours. They show up with intention. “Today, I’m working on my footwork coming off a screen,” or “I want to get 50 clean reps from the left elbow.” There’s a focus, a plan, and a purpose.

I didn’t appreciate this idea when I was playing high school sports. But this is what separates the average from the great and elite. It’s this form of being deliberate with your time.

Now, when it comes to trading, it’s easy to say, “I’m learning,” just because you’re watching charts or skimming headlines. But if there’s no focus and no specific skill you’re working to sharpen, you’re likely just reinforcing your current habits. Both the good and the bad ones.

So how does this look in real life?

Let’s say you’ve had issues managing position size. Deliberate practice might mean reviewing 30 of your past trades, writing down what your sizing logic was, and testing how the outcomes would have changed with different levels of risk. Or if you’re trying to improve trade entries, maybe you commit to screenshotting and journaling your next 50 trades to evaluate which signals you trusted and whether they worked out.

It doesn’t need to take hours. It just needs to be intentional.

And this doesn’t just apply to trading. Let’s say you’re trying to get healthier. Instead of vaguely saying you’ll “eat better,” you might focus on one specific thing. For example, improving what you eat for breakfast. Maybe that means prepping something with protein the night before so you’re not grabbing a sugary bar on your way out the door. Or tracking each day how you feel by noon when you eat certain things in the morning. Just pick one small, specific thing and work on it for a month. Then pivot to a different small, specific thing. At the same time, you’ll be building good habits along the way.

The goal isn’t to cram more into your day. It’s about using your time most effectively. It’s quality over quantity. I mentioned in a recent post that I write one goal for the day and grade myself on it. That’s how I make sure I’m being intentional with my time.

Growth doesn’t come just from motion. It comes from focused, purposeful effort.

Thanks for reading this week!

If something sparked your interest — or you’ve got a hot take of your own — hit reply. I read every email.

-Jeff

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.

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