SPY Climbs While Everyone Eats Pie

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Around the Market

A green stretch, elevated volatility, and the path to year end highs

The shortened week saw a strong stretch of buying with the S&P 500 (via SPY) up 1.7%, closing at $680.27. Each day printed a green candle. Monday and Tuesday were the strongest, with buying momentum tapering off late in the week while U.S. traders were distracted with mashed potatoes and mac and cheese. With yesterday afternoon’s selloff, the series of lower highs is still intact for now. Bulls will want to see Friday’s high reclaimed, followed by the November 12 high, to break this current downtrend.

After today, there are 20 trading days left in the year. Volatility has stayed elevated and equities have been reactive with large intraday ranges throughout November. But now we are heading into December seasonality. Can a few strong sessions push us back to fresh all time highs before year end?

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• ADP Employment Change (Wed 12/3 8:15a ET)

• ISM Services PMI (Wed 12/3 10:00a ET)

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Fri 12/5 10:00a ET)

• Inflation PCE Price Index & Personal Income and Outlays (Fri 12/5 8:30a ET)

• Job Openings JOLTs (Tue 12/9 10:00a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Salesforce CRM (Wed 12/3 after close)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

Amazon’s setup into holiday season and what traders should look for

With Christmas around the corner, retail activity is picking up and Amazon (AMZN) will likely headline the news cycle as holiday sales numbers start coming in. The last time I checked in on the stock was in August, right after earnings, when shares sat around $211. That marked the lower bound of the range with $239 acting as upper resistance until the next earnings report in October. On that report, the stock gapped to $244 at the open and rallied to a new all time high of $258.60 the next day.

From there, November’s broader weakness created enough selling pressure to pull AMZN down to about $215 before a rally back to $233.88 on Monday. Could strong consumer data push shares higher again? With implied volatility falling and IV rank sitting in the teens, traders may look at buying call spreads. The primary profit driver is a move higher, although a rise in volatility without meaningful price movement can also slightly help the position.

One note for those looking for an entry. There was heavy selling between $238 and $248, marked by the blue rectangle on the chart. I would be cautious of price stalling in that zone as sellers try to regain control on rallies into the range.

What’s Top of Mind

How culture shifts can change outcomes on the field and in real life

Last Friday, the Chicago Bears won their ninth game of the season. They are now one win away from doubling last year’s win total and, after a little help around the league, they currently sit in first place in the conference. It’s a stark difference compared to a team that was one of the worst in the league last year. Objectively, they are far from an elite team and are definitely overachieving, which is what makes this run so interesting. With a new coaching staff and a young quarterback, the season is showing what can happen when a team fully commits to consistency and accountability.

After Friday’s game, Caleb Williams mentioned that one of the biggest changes the new head coach brought was consistency. That comment stood out to me because consistency sounds basic. It’s not complicated, but it is demanding. It asks you to do your best to show up the same way on the good days and the bad ones. It asks you to follow the plan when it is exciting and when it is boring. Accountability layers on top of that and keeps everyone honest. It sets the expectation that every person has a role, and that role does not disappear when things get tough.

You can see the impact on the field when you look at how Chicago has improved during the season. Fewer blown assignments. Fewer mental errors and pre-snap penalties. And a growing expectation that they can win each week. There are some talented players on the roster, but they’re not winning because they suddenly became the most gifted team. They are playing cleaner football because the environment changed. They are seeing what happens when small, steady behaviors compound into confidence.

This pattern shows up in real life too. Career growth rarely comes from one big leap. It usually comes from a collection of small, steady actions. Updating a portfolio of work every few months, blocking time each quarter to learn a new skill, or reaching out to one person in your network each month. None of these moments feel like breakthroughs. The benefit comes from consistency, and the bigger transformation comes from accountability. That can be a manager, mentor, peer, or even a recurring reminder you set for yourself to keep you from drifting.

I think about this a lot in fitness having trained for a few races. Anyone who has tried to build strength or run a race knows that consistency beats intensity. Three steady workouts each week will take you farther than one max effort session every couple of weeks. Accountability can be a training plan you review each Sunday or a friend who expects you to meet them at the gym. That structure keeps you from skipping the days that feel inconvenient.

The Bears may not make a deep playoff run, but their season is a reminder that meaningful success often starts with a cultural shift long before it shows up in the results. Consistency builds the foundation. Accountability keeps you committed to the work. Together, they create momentum that carries you forward…and hopefully a Super Bowl win.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.