I’m back with another edition of Hitting the Bid Weekly!
On deck this week…
Choppy week, narrow strength
Quick check-in on hiring and purchasing managers
When rate cuts don’t lower yields
The power of a 15-minute reset
Around the Market
SPY slips as growth names carry the load while traders eye jobs data ahead.
The S&P 500 (via SPY) is down 0.47% over the past week. Do we call this a win for the “Flat” voters or one for the “Down” voters? Whatever you want to call it, the week was marked by choppy trading with bouts of profit-taking that culminated in a push back toward the highs. The index continues to perform strongly, but the resiliency seems to be coming from fewer names. Technology and growth stocks showed their might while defensive parts of the market lagged. Macro traders’ eyes now turn toward a couple of jobs reports this week, the first since the rate cut cycle started. Could investors be dialing back some risk ahead of Wednesday and Friday’s jobs releases, or was last week just another opportunity to buy the dip?
Where do you think the S&P 500 will be next week?
Daily chart of SPY over 1Y time interval
Other key market moves last week:
Closing Price (Monday) | Week/Week Change | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
$16.12 | $0.02 | 0.12% | |
$3,855.2 | $80.10 | 2.12% | |
$116.84 | $0.59 | 0.51% | |
$97.91 | $0.57 | 0.59% | |
$63.45 | $1.17 | 1.88% | |
$114,280 | $1,280 | 1.13% |
The Week Ahead
Economic Calendar
Notable Earnings
Nike NKE (Tue 9/30 after close)
Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.
On My Radar
The Fed trims rates, yet 10-Year Treasury yields climb. The new focus: ADP and NFP reports.
In the screenshot below, I highlighted the dates of the last two meetings when the federal funds rate was cut: 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) last September and 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) this September. The interesting thing is that even though the Fed lowered the federal funds rate, in both instances the 10-Year Treasury note sold off, meaning 10-year yields ticked higher. This is the opposite of what most would expect.
Daily chart of 10-Year T-Note Futures (continuous) over 1Y time interval. Arrows denote FOMC meetings with rate cuts
With the dust settling from the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, I am watching closely to see how the ADP and NFP employment numbers, coming out Wednesday and Friday, respectively, affect the bond market. With the Fed noting in its latest statement that downside risks to employment have risen, these reports become all the more important as bond traders weigh job gains or losses against the current growth trajectory of the U.S. economy.
The general trend of the chart since May looks up and to the right, and I am still looking for pullbacks to enter bullish positions. With implied volatility rank elevated around 21, I would look to sell a bull put spread if there is a dip after Friday’s NFP report. I am unlikely to enter a position after Wednesday’s ADP release, preferring to let the market digest both numbers. For a smaller product, traders can look toward IEF, the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF.
What’s Top of Mind
A daily tech-free walk and a pocket notebook can be simple tools to win Q4.
We made it to the end of Q3!
It has been quite the 2025, both in the trading and investing world and for me personally. While catching up on some things over the weekend, I came across a newsletter that felt timely for the final push toward the end of the year: “25 Ways to Win the Last 100 Days of 2025” by Sahil Bloom. One idea that caught my eye was going for a daily 15-minute tech-free walk, which fits naturally into my routine. It is a simple one, but I think that is the point. It is easy to do. Many of us have built habits around a constant stream of information: screens in front of us, earbuds in our ears, notifications pulling our attention back. A short, tech-free walk cuts through all of that. It is a simple reset button.
I go for a walk almost daily, but I am guilty of periodically checking my phone at a stoplight or listening to podcasts, continuing to inundate my mind with more information. The walk is mostly a fitness routine for me, but I believe I can benefit from a mental reset. I can use it to reflect on the day, start planning for tomorrow, or simply enjoy the fresh air.
This pairs well with another item on the list: “carry a small notebook everywhere you go.” That way I can jot down any ideas that come to mind during the walk. It is also a timely suggestion. Last week, I was taking notes on my phone during a discussion, and from the outside it looked like I was texting instead of paying attention. A notebook would be perfect for situations like this.
Life can get a little crazy, and we often share the same daily challenges. There are endless ways to tackle these challenges head-on, and sometimes we just need to find simple hacks like these that give us a quick reset and get us back on track.
We’ll see how long these stick for me, but I’m going to give it a shot. Is there anything you’re going to do to win Q4? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Hit reply or find me at [email protected]. I read every email.
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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.
