Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week was one of those weeks where the index level only told part of the story. While all three major indices pushed to fresh all-time highs, $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) stayed firmly in control as mega-cap tech carried the tape, driven by a massive earnings slate from $META ( ▼ 0.68% ), $MSFT ( ▲ 3.05% ), $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.07% ), $AMZN ( ▼ 1.15% ), and $AAPL ( ▲ 0.68% ) .

The takeaway was not that every report was perfect, but that the market is still rewarding companies that can tie AI spending to real revenue growth. GOOGL was the standout, while investors didn’t like the numbers from META and MSFT, reinforcing just how high expectations remain. AAPL, still viewed as lagging in AI, closed the week by beating revenue expectations and stabilizing sentiment.

$SPY ( ▼ 1.2% ) moved higher as well, but with less force, while $IWM ( ▼ 2.41% ) continued to lag. Small caps are still dealing with the same headwinds: higher rates, sticky inflation, and limited exposure to the AI narrative.

On the macro side, the Fed held rates steady and PCE inflation remained elevated, with headline at 3.5% and core at 3.2% year over year. That kept the “higher for longer” narrative intact, even as earnings gave investors a reason to stay long growth.

Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil higher, a reminder that inflation risk is not just coming from data. This week, attention shifts to earnings from AMD, Disney, Uber, and DoorDash, along with Friday’s jobs report, to see whether momentum can broaden beyond mega-cap tech.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

This week, I’m taking a break from earnings and revisiting something I have a long-term bullish bias on: Bitcoin.

While well off its all-time high of $71.82 from last October, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT ( ▼ 2.92% ) has quietly built momentum after bottoming in early February. Price has started to put in a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is enough to get my attention.

After reclaiming the March 17 high at $42.50 and holding that level as support, I entered a bullish call diagonal with IV low at the time, targeting a move toward the January 30 price gap around $46.37. That level also lines up with the November 21 swing low, making it a logical area for resistance.

There are real headwinds to consider. The CLARITY Act is expected to move through Senate Banking Committee markup this month, but timing remains uncertain with competing priorities and the upcoming midterm cycle. Passage is far from guaranteed. On top of that, any de-risking tied to geopolitical tensions or a stronger dollar driven by higher yields could pressure price.

For now, I’m holding the position and letting the levels guide the decision-making. A break below recent support would trigger a small loss. A strong move through the gap would likely lead me to add.

There's a recent quote I read that's been sitting with me lately.

The first time I read it, I thought about trading. Then I thought about how it applies to almost everything.

In trading, there’s a pattern that’s easy to fall into. You find a strategy, run it for a few weeks, hit a rough patch, and start wondering if something better is out there. So you read a new book, watch a few videos, try something new. Then you repeat the cycle.

It feels productive. It looks like learning. But most of the time, it’s just noisy churn.

The traders who compound over time are not the ones who found the perfect strategy. They are the ones who stuck with a good one long enough to get really good at executing it. The edge is not just in the system. It’s in the repetitions.

I felt that same pull this weekend. I watched a demo of ChatGPT Codex, and it looked really impressive. For a moment, I wanted to jump in and start building with it.

But I didn’t.

Right now I'm deep in Claude Code. I'm learning it, building with it, getting reps. If I pivot to go down the Codex rabbit hole, I'm not upgrading. I'm resetting. I'm trading depth for novelty. And the cost of that isn't just the time it takes to learn something new. It’s the compounding I give up.

This shows up everywhere.

In markets, a position doesn’t work right away, so you look for the next one. A strategy hits friction, so you search for a “better” one. It feels like adapting. Most of the time, it’s just switching, requiring you to put energy into starting over.

It shows up in personal health too. Most people aren't struggling because they haven't found the right approach. They've found several. A new workout, a new diet, a new morning routine, a new app. Each one gets two weeks of genuine effort before the next one takes its place. But health doesn't work on a two-week timeline. The people who see results pick a few things and stay with them long enough for it to matter.

Speed gets you in the game. Staying focused is what compounds the edge.

The question isn't whether something new is worth exploring. Sometimes it genuinely is. It’s whether you have fully explored what you’re already doing and getting really good at it.

Often the answer is no. So if you do believe a change is actually necessary, just make sure it’s deliberate to avoid the cost of resetting.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.