Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

The S&P 500 (via SPY) started the week strong, up almost 1% on Monday, but wasn’t able to overcome the late-week weakness, finishing ~0.4% lower versus last Monday. The market reacted to a flurry of geopolitical headlines, and when combined with the latest Federal Reserve outlook, this drove some notable intraday swings. The S&P 500 has been coiling between ~$591 and $605 over the past three weeks. If prices continue consolidating in this range, the odds of a strong breakout, either up or down, grow. Keep an eye on this week’s macro events; this range may not hold much longer.

Other notable market moves since last week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

This week, I’m shifting away from futures and taking a look at Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Since March, CMG has mostly traded between ~$49 and ~$52.50. On Monday, it broke out of that range to the upside and looks to be building positive momentum.

Zooming out, there’s also been a lot of trading between ~$53 and the all-time high of $69.26 over the past 16 months. That could create some resistance due to overhead supply, where buyers from higher prices may look to sell as prices return toward their breakeven levels.

With IV rank sitting at ~40 and implied volatility up ~3% over the past five days, I’m considering a short put position. Elevated volatility presents an opportunity for potential mean reversion (decreasing volatility), which would benefit the trade. Short puts are also bullish so price appreciation generates profit, but neutral movement could also work in favor of the position since a short put profits simply as days go by.

CMG has earnings on July 23, so my plan would be to close the trade prior to the earnings report or sooner if the position captures 50% of the initial credit received upon entry.

Over the past 20 years, there’s one thing I’ve gotten much more comfortable doing: taking risks. It started with poker and evolved into sports betting. Now here I am, trading options, making YouTube videos and writing a newsletter each week. I’ve written before about using some simple math to make better decisions. But today I want to take a step back and talk about why I believe taking calculated bets is so important.

Let’s start financially. If your money just sits in cash or a savings account because investing feels risky, you’re really just losing purchasing power to inflation. No risk, no reward. Whether it’s stocks, a rental property, or launching a side hustle, smart risks are asymmetric bets that help build wealth. You don’t get there by standing still.

At work? Same thing. The people who land promotions, raises, or exciting new jobs are usually the ones who volunteer for tough projects or go after roles they aren’t 100% qualified for. Maybe they move from individual contributor to people leader, even though they’ve never managed a team. If you wait until you feel totally ready... you’ll be waiting forever.

And in everyday life? We tend to think of risk as something financial or career-related. But often the most meaningful growth comes from personal risks. These are the moments that shape who we are and deepen our relationships.

Starting a new relationship. Opening up emotionally. Having an honest conversation. There’s risk in all of it: rejection, getting hurt. But there’s also the possibility of deeper connection, something that wouldn’t happen if you didn’t take the chance.

There’s risk in change too: moving to a new city, trying something completely outside your comfort zone, saying yes when you’d usually say no. Those uncomfortable moments often lead to your most rewarding experiences. You gain confidence. You broaden your perspective. You surprise yourself with what you’re capable of. Even small risks—going to an event alone, picking up a new hobby, traveling solo—can reignite excitement and help you reconnect with what energizes you.

When you avoid risk entirely, life may feel stable. But it also gets predictable. You miss out on new people, new passions, and moments that shift your worldview. The upside of risk is possibility. The possibility of joy, growth, and connection.

Of course, there’s always a chance things won’t go perfectly. But the alternative of never trying or never reaching is often worse. In the end, risks aren’t just about what you might lose. They’re about everything you stand to gain.

Sometimes you just have to take the leap. The biggest wins in life usually start with a little risk.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.