Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Finn is 13 months old, and he walks now.

Still a little wobbly. But he walks to things on purpose, and a few weeks ago he couldn't do that at all.

It looked like it happened overnight. It didn't.

First he stood on his own. Then he moved along furniture, holding himself up. Then came weeks of trying to let go. He kept trying to walk solo and kept not quite getting there. We'd hold him while he walked, never sure if he actually wanted to try in that moment. Some days he got frustrated and was done with the whole idea for the day.

Then one day he pushed up from a squat and just walked. Solid steps, across his play area, to the thing he wanted.

Progress gets stored long before it shows.

Anyone who has looked at a chart knows this shape. A stock goes nowhere for months, and nobody cares. Then it breaks out, and suddenly everyone notices. But signs of strength can develop during the flat stretch, the part traders call a base. Pullbacks get shallower. Support holds. The breakout gets the attention, even though the setup took months.

Here's the hard part. A few days of prices aren't enough to tell you whether a stock is building a base or still working lower. When you're living through your own version, both can feel like going nowhere. You have to look beyond the latest result for evidence that something is improving.

With Finn, that evidence was there. Standing, then holding on, then letting go for a moment. He didn't get further every time, but over those weeks he could do more.

Most of us have something like that in progress. Learning a language where you understand more than you can say. A new job where you aren't fast yet, but you're less lost than last month. Getting back in shape when the scale hasn't moved but the stairs feel easier.

My writing is one of mine. I've written this newsletter every week for about 18 months now. The drafts come together faster. More importantly, I've found a rhythm that fits family, trading, writing, and building into the same week without one crowding out the rest. None of that shows up on a chart.

I could judge the work by the number that moves slowest, or I could also look at whether the base is getting built. I can't control how quickly the results arrive. I can pay attention to what's improving and adjust what isn't.

So here's the question I'm asking when things feel like they’re flat:

Is this a base or a downtrend?

Here's how I'm answering it. I pick one thing that feels stuck and look at my last few attempts. What can I do now that I couldn't do a month ago? Where am I making fewer mistakes or needing less help?

Look for improvement across your last few attempts, not a breakthrough in every one.

If there's evidence of progress, I keep building. If the attempts have stopped, or the same problem keeps showing up without anything changing, I take that as a reason to adjust the approach.

I don't know when it'll click. But I can give myself something more useful to do than wait for it.

And when it does, it probably won’t look polished. And that’s okay.

Finn is still wobbly. But he walks to things anyway.

Know someone working through a stretch where the effort isn't showing up in the results yet? Forward this their way.

Monday's bounce helped, but it didn't erase a difficult week for stocks. Across the Tuesday-through-Monday window, SPY fell 1.5%, QQQ lost 3.7%, and IWM declined 2.4%.

After a quiet Tuesday, Wednesday's inflation report changed the tone. September CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, while core inflation increased 0.3% for the month. The hotter report renewed concerns about another Fed rate increase.

AI stocks faced particular pressure over the financing behind the infrastructure buildout. Thursday's modest recovery didn't hold. On Friday, the Nasdaq fell 2.1% and the S&P 500 lost 1.1%. To me, positioning and order flows appeared to amplify the selling. But there were concerns underneath it, too. CoreWeave's bond yields had climbed above 15%, raising questions about whether heavily indebted AI companies could generate enough revenue to support their borrowing.

Oil added inflation pressure heading into the weekend. A U.S. waiver of some Russian sanctions later eased prices, while Middle East supply concerns kept trading volatile.

One thing I’m watching: treasury yields are showing signs of easing despite the structural inflation pressures. I’m not sure what this means, but it’s a notable shift in the market, and I want to see how it develops.

Monday brought buyers back into technology, lifting the Nasdaq 1.1%. Most stocks outside AI and technology declined, though, leaving the recovery narrow.

This week's focus shifts to earnings, including Meta and Tesla on Wednesday. Thursday's jobless claims and Friday's flash business surveys and final consumer sentiment reading round out the macro calendar.

Key market moves this past week:

Procter & Gamble $PG ( ▼ 1.56% ) spent about six months chopping inside a range from roughly $141 to $154. Last week's rotation into staples pushed it out the top. It closed Friday at $159.35, up 5.4% on the week, with about 16.4 million shares traded Thursday and 13.5 million Friday against an 8 million average. That gives the breakout more weight than a quiet drift higher.

Then it ran into a ceiling. A downtrend line connecting the March 10, 2025 high near $180 and the February 27, 2026 swing high near $167 sits around $159 now. Friday's high of $159.98 tagged it, and price backed off. By Monday's close, $PG was back near $157.69.

That pullback is the part I'm interested in. The $154.32 range high is the level to watch. If price comes back to it and holds as support, that's a breakout getting tested, and it's where I'd consider getting involved. A close back below $154.32 puts $PG inside the old box and would have me treating this as a failed breakout.

The 50-day (~$147) and 200-day (~$148) simple moving averages sit flat and nearly on top of each other well below price, reflecting the longer sideways stretch. If the trendline gives way, the next upside reference is the $167 swing high.

I'm not taking a position into earnings. $PG reports Thursday, October 22, before the open, and I'd rather see the reaction first. Elevated oil prices make input costs and pricing commentary worth listening for.

After the print, I'll check implied volatility (IV) and the pricing across strikes and expirations. If IV stays elevated and support holds, I may look at a put credit spread below $154. If it falls, I'll compare debit structures, including a call diagonal, for a directional trade. The structure still has to fit the setup and the price.

Not an exhaustive list, just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.