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Has a shift in trend occurred?

Last Thursday, front-month crude oil futures surged from $99 to $111 as geopolitical threats intensified. That has historically been a recipe for a broad equity market sell-off. Instead, we saw the dip bought, which came after a massive bid to end the first quarter. Maybe it was driven in part by quarter-end rebalancing and subsequent positioning, but whatever the catalyst, SPY and QQQ defied the energy drag and finished the week up 4.3% and 5.4%, respectively.

Part of the strength may have also come down to expectations. The market had already spent weeks pricing in geopolitical risk and sticky inflation, so the move in oil felt more like confirmation than surprise. At the same time, yields have started to settle, which helped support valuations, especially in growth.

Headlines over the weekend remained centered around energy markets and supply concerns, but equities held firm on Monday. That reinforces the idea that the market is comfortable with the current range of uncertainty for now. Some key levels remain overhead, though, with SPY and QQQ sitting just below their 1-month EMA and the 200-day SMA not far above.

Another deadline arrives tonight. Does volatility return, or has the trend truly shifted?

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

The airline sector often acts as a proxy for the consumer’s willingness to spend. This Wednesday, Delta Air Lines (DAL) kicks off earnings season before the opening bell.

The stock has been carving out a recovery, but energy remains the key risk. While booking data suggests the traveler is still resilient, March was a brutal month for jet fuel costs. This is the classic airline trap. The top line looks strong, but the bottom line gets squeezed by the fuel required to fly the planes.

Earnings season is where narrative meets math. You will see plenty of “beats” that sell off and “misses” that get bought. That is because the market is forward-looking. It does not care about the quarter that just ended. It cares about the next two.

If Delta hits expectations but shows cracks in full-year guidance due to fuel costs or labor pressure, the “beat” may not matter if you are bullish.

Price is currently sitting in the middle of a range defined by recent gaps, and IV rank remains elevated above 70, driven by the macro and earnings uncertainty. The earnings expected move is about $4, or roughly 6%. If a trader is comfortable with the risk, they may look to take advantage of the volatility crush by selling options ahead of the report. As for me, I’m waiting for a break of the range.

Most People React. Few People Recalibrate.

This past week was a perfect example of how easy it is to fall into reaction mode.

Oil rips higher. Headlines follow. Equities wobble. The instinct is to do something. Trim risk. Chase protection. Reposition quickly.

But reacting feels productive while often just being emotional movement disguised as action.

The edge comes from recalibrating.

Reaction is immediate. It is tied to what just happened.
Recalibration is intentional. It is tied to what is changing.

Look at how this showed up in markets. Oil moved from $99 to $111, and the obvious trade was to lean into that narrative and sell stocks. But under the surface, bonds and stocks began to behave differently. You don’t catch that if you’re reacting. You catch it by stepping back and asking, “Is my framework still right?”

This shows up in your day-to-day too.

At work, imagine constant Slack pings about shifting priorities. The reactive move is to chase each one and context switch all day. But recalibration looks like blocking 15 minutes, resetting your top three priorities, and sending one clear message to your team outlining what matters today and what moves to tomorrow.

During performance review season, the reactive move is to fixate on one piece of feedback and overhaul everything. Recalibration is identifying one or two patterns and building a system. If the high-level feedback is “be more proactive,” you commit to a weekly Friday update with wins, risks, and next steps.

Even personally, it shows up more than you think. A bad night of sleep or a missed workout can spiral into a reactive day. Recalibration can be simple. Drink a glass of water, take a 10-minute walk without your phone, and rewrite the next three things you will do. Then tackle them one-by-one. You are not salvaging the morning. You are resetting the trajectory of the day.

Or if you fall behind on a goal you set earlier this year, the reactive move is to label it a failure and quit. Recalibration is shrinking the scope and restarting. Ten pages instead of a full chapter. Twenty minutes instead of an hour. You adjust the system so it fits your current reality.

The market rewards those who can update their model without overreacting.

Life works the same way.

You don’t need to respond to everything. You just need to recognize when it is time to adjust your approach.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.