Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Markets don’t hate bad news. They hate uncertainty. Last week, we may have seen a fakeout that left undisciplined traders holding the bag.

Friday felt like a breakout. The S&P 500 (via SPY) surged 1.1% on a relief rally after the Supreme Court struck down broad executive tariff powers. Traders also digested a mixed macro dump. Q4 GDP missed meaningfully at 1.4% versus 3.0% expected, but markets initially treated it as “bad news is good news,” increasing the probability of rate cuts. Even a hot core PCE print of 3.0% could not dampen the mood, as software weakness was offset by a broader risk-on appetite.

Then came the weekend.

The administration signaled a pivot to alternative trade barriers, effectively bypassing the court’s ruling. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. By Monday, the Friday gains were gone. SPY and QQQ gave back the rally as the reality of sticky 3% inflation and trade war 2.0 settled in. Meanwhile, IWM continues to search for a floor as small-cap rotation tries to regain its footing.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

The market is holding its breath. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) reports after the bell this Wednesday, and expectations are, as usual, heavy. Wall Street is looking for $65.6 billion in revenue and $1.52 in EPS, representing a massive 70% year-over-year jump. But the headline numbers are just the entry fee.

The real trade is in the Blackwell ramp.

Analysts are focused on the transition from the Hopper architecture to next-gen Blackwell chips. We have heard the “insane demand” narrative for months. Now the market wants proof of supply chain execution and clear guidance for the April quarter, which the Street has pegged at roughly $71.7 billion.

The stock has been grinding sideways for six months. It is a classic consolidation phase just below the $200 psychological level. This print could be the tie-breaker. If Jensen delivers a beat and raise that justifies the current CapEx binge from the hyperscalers, we could see a breakout toward record highs. If the guide is merely good, I am not expecting traders to push the stock back to those October highs. A test of the bottom of the range becomes more likely.

Because long consolidations can turn into big moves, I will be trading the reaction, not the anticipation. Price is currently near the top end of the $170 to $195 range that NVDA has been bouncing between. Given this extended consolidation, I want to see a clean break of the range post-earnings before entering a position. As always, implied volatility will dictate structure, buying versus selling options. I’ll revisit NVDA once the range is resolved.

I recently started rewatching Ted Lasso, and I’m reminded why I loved it the first time around. It takes principles that actually drive long-term success and packages them in a way that feels light, human, and real. No spoilers, but a few themes continue to resonate with me, some of which I’ve talked about before.

First, one I mention often, the process matters more than the outcome.

We all have scoreboards. In trading, it is your daily P&L. In your career, it might be a quarterly target or performance review. At home, it could be the number on the scale, your newborn sleeping through the night, or how productive your week felt.

Scoreboards are loud. They create emotion. They tempt you to overreact.

But one bad trade does not invalidate your strategy. One tough meeting does not mean you are bad at your job. One off week of workouts does not erase months of consistency.

The question is not always “Did I win today?”, but it is always “Did I follow my process?”

Did you size the trade correctly? Prepare for the meeting? Stick to your calorie target Monday through Friday? These are controllable. And controllables compound.

Second, accountability.

In professional settings, accountability builds credibility. If you miss a deadline and own it, explain what happened, and propose a solution, you build trust. If a project underperforms and you run a post-mortem instead of pointing fingers, you improve faster.

At home, it’s the same. Saying, “I was short-tempered. That is on me,” changes the tone of a relationship. Or maybe you committed to being more present after work, then catch yourself scrolling during dinner. Accountability is not beating yourself up. It’s noticing it, putting the phone down, and adjusting in real time.

A simple daily audit can be powerful. What did I do well? Where did I drift from my standards? What is one tweak I can make tomorrow? If daily feels daunting, try five intentional minutes on Sunday morning to reset the week.

And finally, character over reputation.

It’s easy to optimize for optics. The polished LinkedIn update. The curated highlight reel. The appearance of having it all together. But who really has it all together?

Character is quieter. It’s sending the follow-up email you promised. Preparing when no one checks. Choosing integrity over a shortcut. Keeping your word in small, boring ways. Being kind when no one is watching.

Reputation follows character, not the other way around.

All this does not require reinvention. It requires small, consistent tweaks. Protect your process. Own your mistakes. Choose character in the small moments.

Do that daily, and the results take care of themselves.

Consistency is simply a series of small, disciplined choices.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.