Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Equities spent the week caught between renewed geopolitical risk and another round of volatility in the AI trade. The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire was already showing cracks Tuesday, helping oil catch a bid. At the same time, semiconductor weakness pulled the Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▼ 0.14% ) lower as investors questioned whether expectations around AI spending had moved too far ahead of fundamentals.

The pressure intensified Wednesday after the ceasefire was declared “over,” sending oil up more than 5%. The June FOMC minutes added another concern. Policymakers expressed growing unease about inflation, with 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike this year, although the minutes did not establish a clear policy path.

Buyers returned Thursday as Micron led a semiconductor rebound, lifting the Nasdaq 1.3%. Friday’s gains brought the S&P 500 $SPY ( ▼ 0.2% ) back near its record high with the Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.52% ) lagging as attention shifted toward earnings season.

That progress was largely erased Monday. More U.S.-Iran escalation over the weekend pushed WTI crude futures up more than 9% to roughly $78, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.6%. SPY fell 0.8%, QQQ dropped 1.9%, and IWM lost 0.8%. Across the full week, the S&P 500 declined about 0.3%, the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.8%.

This week brings PPI, retail sales, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony, major bank earnings, and results from TSM. With oil adding another inflation variable as traders price in a real chance of renewed conflict, the market will have plenty to digest.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Occidental Petroleum $OXY ( ▲ 1.14% ) is having a moment because oil is having one. WTI has climbed from the high $60s to above $78 as the U.S. resumed strikes following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The peace deal that pushed crude down sharply now looks like it’s coming apart, and Occidental is one of the more oil-sensitive large-cap ways to play a repricing in crude.

But the fundamental story is not why I’m watching this one this week. It’s the $53 level.

That price has been the site of several regime changes going back to October 2024, when it sat in the middle of a gap. It capped rallies in January and February 2025, then again in February 2026. On March 2, OXY finally broke through. What had been resistance flipped to support, holding on three separate tests through March and April before failing in mid-June and leaving another gap behind.

Then, on July 8, price broke back above $53 before closing below it the next day. It looked like a textbook failed breakout. But on Monday, OXY gapped cleanly through the level.

A price level that keeps forcing this many decisions over 18 months is not noise. It’s a line the market keeps having to relitigate. There is also a second gap from February 19 that caught price on July 1, adding another potential layer of support underneath.

What I’m watching now is whether $53 finally holds as support on this retest, the way it did in March and April. If it does, that would confirm the level has flipped for now and keeps the path toward the $60s open. If OXY loses $53 again, I want to see whether the February 19 gap catches it again before assuming the move is in trouble.

Underneath all of this, Berkshire Hathaway owned 26.6% of the company as of Q1, with an estimated average cost basis of $51.76. That is not a level I picked. It’s an area where Berkshire’s estimated cost basis and the technical picture happen to line up almost perfectly.

Just like you, I’ve spent a lot of my time living with uncertainty. Given the choice between a clear path and a messy one, the clear one often looks more appealing, even during times when it’s objectively worse. A defined outcome feels safer than an open question, so the safe route can seem like the best decision before we've even considered the alternative.

Here’s what I’ve noticed, though. You’re crawling through the mud, you see a clean path out, and you take it. What you don't realize in the moment is that if you had been willing to sit in the mud a little longer, your actual breakthrough might have been right there.

Not because the mud is anything magical. But because staying in it is what changes you.

Tolerance for uncertainty might be one of the most underrated traits there is.

It’s easy to show up when the outcome is guaranteed. When the path is lit the whole way through. But life mostly doesn’t work like that. It’s long stretches of doubt with no scoreboard telling you whether you’re on track.

Trading is one of the clearest versions of this I know. A position that hasn't hit its target yet is not necessarily a losing trade. It’s an open one. The discomfort of holding through chop, with no candle confirming whether you're right or wrong, is the same discomfort that shows up everywhere else on this list.

The edge was never in predicting the outcome. It’s in staying in the unresolved middle without flinching out of it early, as long as your exit criteria have not been met.

Right now, parenting is where this hits hardest for me. I’ve read the books. I’ve talked to other parents and referenced different frameworks. Here’s the truth you don’t know going in: no one, including me, feels 100% certain they are making the right call for their child.

Again, there is no confirmation candle.

You make the decision, you don't get proof for years, sometimes ever, and then you make the next one anyway. Every parent is doing some form of what I’m doing. Guessing with conviction and staying in it.

I’m also living a version of this with two other things I’m building. This newsletter’s subscriber growth has stalled. The SaaS app I’ve been working on doesn't have real users yet. Neither one comes with a signal telling me whether it's going to work.

The honest answer is not that I know it will pay off. It’s that I don't know, and quitting now guarantees the exact outcome I’m trying to avoid.

None of this means discomfort is proof that you’re on the right track. Plenty of mud just leads to more of it. But comfort is not proof of anything either.

What I’ve learned through the years is that winners are not always the smartest people in the room, nor are they always the ones with the most talent. Often, they have the trait where they can hold through uncertainty the longest when nobody is handing them confirmation. They show up every day despite not knowing what new challenges the day will bring or what detours they have to take.

The breakthrough is not on the other side of certainty. It’s usually just further into the mud than most people are willing to go.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.