Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week, equities continued to surge higher as investors leaned further into the idea that the macro backdrop may be stabilizing, even if it is not necessarily improving. The S&P 500 $SPY ( ▼ 1.2% ) and the Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) led the charge throughout the week, powered once again by the mega caps and continued AI momentum. The Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▼ 2.41% ) showed some recent strength but still lagged as higher rates and sticky inflation expectations continued to weigh on smaller companies.

The biggest move came Wednesday morning after reports suggested the U.S. and Iran were nearing a framework aimed at de-escalation in the Middle East. Markets quickly responded to the possibility of easing tensions and lower energy risk premiums, helping fuel another leg higher in SPY, and especially QQQ, as oil prices pulled back sharply.

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the current market narrative. Job growth came in strong enough to ease fears of an economic slowdown, but not weak enough to force the Fed into cutting rates quickly. That leaves markets stuck in the same balancing act: growth remains intact, but inflation still appears to be hanging around.

Over the weekend, geopolitical headlines remained active, yet markets continue to show an ability to absorb the absence of a formal peace deal without fully repricing risk lower. This week, traders will focus on CPI, PPI, and retail sales as investors look for more clarity around consumer strength and inflation trends.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

This week, a move in The Walt Disney Company $DIS ( ▼ 2.56% ) led me into a bearish trade. Earnings last week were solid, with a 4.98% EPS beat and a 1.28% revenue beat. The report initially pushed the stock roughly $6 higher at the open on May 6, with shares adding another $1.50 by the close to about $108. Despite that strength, I bought a put diagonal spread yesterday, a position that benefits from a decline in stock price alongside rising volatility.

A few observations led me into the trade:

There is no guarantee price sells off based on these observations, but these are the types of details I look for when structuring trades. Price did bounce at the 13-day EMA, which may provide enough support for a move higher and a retest of $107 as resistance. If I see a retest and successful rejection of that level, I’ll likely add another small trade to the position. A close back above the level, though, and I’ll evaluate cutting the trade for a loss.

I've been watching the TV show Billions lately. There are scenes where a trader sizes up ahead of a news event and walks away clean. Your first instinct is to say it's Hollywood. Then you look at what actually happened on May 6.

For about 30 minutes starting at 3:40 a.m. ET, approximately 17,300 futures contracts, around $1.7 billion notional, traded during a period where volume is typically very thin. Around an hour later, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were nearing a memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation. Crude sold off nearly 12%.

Going back to March 23, a large oil short position was built around 6:50 a.m. ET before another sharp selloff. Same pattern. Off-hours. Outsized size. Ahead of a major move.

Two incidents. Different months. Similar fingerprint.

Market manipulation, information asymmetry, large players moving ahead of the news. These things have existed as long as there have been markets. It's part of the terrain.

Legendary coach John Wooden had a maxim he returned to often:

When you see trades like these while digging into the oil selloff, it's easy to spiral into frustration. Who did this? How did they know? Why is the game rigged?

That spiral is exactly the trap.

The right question isn't who placed the trade. The right question is: given this environment, how do I position myself? How do I effectively adapt to a playing field that will always be tilted against me?

In trading, that means recalibrating your probabilities, staying process-driven instead of emotional, and focusing energy on adaptation rather than blame.

You had a prior belief. A breakout was setting up. Then price reverses hard and fails to hold. That's new information. Don't double down out of stubbornness. Reduce confidence, trim or cut the position, and move forward.

Think about day-to-day life. You're on your way to something important and traffic suddenly grinds to a halt. An accident. A closure. Something completely outside your control. You can spend the next 30 minutes white-knuckling the wheel, frustrated at a situation you didn't create and can't fix. Or you can call ahead, adjust expectations, find another route, and show up focused instead of frazzled.

Or maybe your company restructures and a project you've spent months working on suddenly loses support. You can't control the reorg, but you can control whether you spend the next week venting about it or figuring out where you can create value inside the new structure.

The people who take the most damage in moments like these aren't the ones who missed the move. They're the ones who chased the open, abandoned their process, or wasted energy asking the wrong question.

You can't stop what someone else trades at 4 a.m. But you can control what you do when the opening bell rings.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.