Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!
On deck this week…
It’s the same three drivers
Does the Fed matter on Wednesday?
Fuel costs and Delta flight paths
March Madness, real life lessons
Around the Market
Oil, rates, and headlines continue to dictate market direction
Markets are trading the same equation that has defined most of 2026: oil, rates, and headlines. The challenge remains uncertainty driven by geopolitics and energy prices.
Early in the week, equities attempted to stabilize after Monday’s rally. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) consolidated as investors digested earnings and positioned ahead of key macro data. The Russell 2000 (IWM) continued to lag, as higher rate sensitivity and economic uncertainty weighed on small caps.
The tone shifted late in the week. Markets faded Thursday and Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued and traders reduced risk heading into the weekend. When uncertainty rises and markets face two days without liquidity, institutions often cut exposure first and ask questions later. That risk-off positioning pushed SPY and QQQ lower and left sentiment fragile.
Over the weekend, headlines continued to point to heightened regional tensions, but markets opened Monday with a surprisingly strong bid. Positioning likely played a role. After several days of de-risking, many traders were already light on exposure, which limited incremental selling pressure. In addition, oil prices did not spike as aggressively as feared. Iran allowed two Indian tankers to pass through the strait, easing inflation concerns and allowing buyers to step back into equities. That lifted SPY, QQQ, and even IWM to start the week.
Focus Points:
The Fed Pivot: No change in the Fed funds rate is expected during Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and the first cut has been pushed out to December. The focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Crude Volatility: Watch the $95 to $100 range. If it stabilizes and drifts lower, equities can breathe. If it breaks higher, expect more downside pressure.
Daily chart of SPY over 1Y time interval
Key market moves this past week:
Closing Price (Monday) | Week/Week Change | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
$669.03 | -$9.42 | -1.4% | |
$600.38 | -$7.38 | -1.2% | |
$248.92 | -$4.70 | -1.9% | |
$23.51 | -$1.99 | -7.8% | |
$5,002 | -$102 | -2.0% | |
$114.63 | -$1.62 | -1.4% | |
$99.71 | $0.85 | 0.9% | |
$94.26 | -$0.77 | -0.8% | |
$74,400 | $5,700 | 8.3% |
The Week Ahead
Economic Calendar
Notable Earnings
Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.
On My Radar
Delta’s pullback sets up a potential volatility trade
With the rise in oil prices, airlines are feeling the pressure as fuel costs increase. Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down about 20% from its all-time high in February of $76.39 to Monday’s close of $60.84.
Daily chart of DAL over 1Y time interval
Price found support near $55, which aligns with previous swing lows. It has also closed above its prior day’s high over the last two sessions and reclaimed the 5-day EMA.
With IV rank elevated in the 40s, a bullish trader could consider selling a put, benefiting from both price appreciation and potential volatility contraction. There is a price gap just under $64, which aligns with a prior support level that could now act as resistance. Traders should stay nimble if price approaches that level.
A trader could add to the position on a strong close above the gap, or reduce exposure if price stalls.
What’s Top of Mind
How brackets mirror trading, work, and personal decisions
The brackets are live. Sixty-eight teams. One champion. And roughly 70 million people convinced they have cracked the code.
They haven't. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to learn from the attempt.
A few things about bracket picking map almost perfectly to how I think about trading and how I try to approach the bigger stuff, too.
Stop judging decisions solely by their outcomes. Variance is not failure.
Anyone who has filled out a bracket knows the feeling. A 12 seed knocks off a 5 seed and suddenly it feels like picking the favorite was wrong. But historically, that upset happens only about 35% of the time on the men’s side and 22% on the women’s. Picking the 5 seed was still the higher probability decision. It just lost this time.
Trading works the same way. A well-structured trade can lose money while a reckless one can make money. If you judge decisions only by the result, you train yourself to repeat bad behavior and abandon good process. Accept the losing trade that followed your rules. Question the winning trade that did not.
The same applies to daily life. A thoughtful project at work can flop while a rushed one succeeds. You can do everything right as a parent and still have a brutal night. That is not a referendum on your process. Stay the course and adjust based on patterns, not single data points.
You can’t win by doing what everyone else is doing.
In a bracket pool, if everyone picks the same champion, there is no edge. Winning requires differentiated picks, not random contrarianism, but informed deviation from consensus.
Markets are no different. Crowded trades compress upside and amplify downside. The opportunity is in what is underappreciated, not what is obvious.
The same is true professionally and personally. The resume that looks like every other resume, the career path everyone is chasing, the milestones driven by social comparison. These are crowded trades. Intentional decisions grounded in your own values tend to produce better outcomes.
The edge is not the information. It’s what you do with it.
Every bracket picker can see the same data. Rankings, injuries, metrics. The winner is not working with secret information. They interpret it differently.
Markets work the same way. Earnings reports and Fed statements are public. The edge is in the synthesis and subsequent action.
Your colleagues sit in the same meetings. The person who leaves and does something creates separation.
In your personal life, most people know what they should do. Sleep more, eat better, exercise. That information is everywhere. The person who actually does something about it isn't working with a secret nobody else has. They logged the data, looked honestly at where their week hit rough spots, and made specific changes. Maybe that's prepping meals on Sunday, installing blackout curtains, or putting the gym on the calendar like a meeting. The edge is not knowledge. It’s action.
Same data. Different interpretation. Taking action. That is the game.
Focus Points:
Grade the Decision: Evaluate the process, not just the outcome.
Be Different: Ask whether you’re following the crowd or thinking independently.
Bias for Action: Gather the data, analyze, and act.
Finally, as the preview text promised, here are my tips to win your March Madness pool. They’re simple, but they work when most people think they can pick upsets while the first game they watch is this week. This assumes a standard pool without bonus points for upsets.
Enter a pool that has 20 or less people in it. As pool size increases, the likelihood of someone riding variance and getting lucky plays a larger role.
Your national champion and Final Four are the most important choices in your bracket since they’re worth the most points. You can hem and haw trying to pick upsets, but in the end these will be your most important picks. Typically, I choose a 1 or 2 seed for the champion, occasionally a 3 seed. I also tend pick a champion that’s not the favorite to win it all based on betting odds if my informed deviation points that way.
If you can't make a decision on a close matchup, use the AP poll. The wisdom of crowd (in this case, sports writers) can be the tie-breaker. Similarly, use game lines for the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups. These games are generally very close and sometimes the worse seed is favored. You can use these lines to at least inform your choice since these markets will be very efficient with real money exchanging hands.
Upsets will happen, but since they occur early in the tournament, they’re not worth a lot of points. It’s also very unlikely double-digit seeds make a deep run, so avoid the trendy Cinderella narrative, especially in small pools.
I'll share my brackets next week so we can all see if my strategy works this year.
Thanks for reading this week!
If something sparked your interest — or you’ve got a hot take of your own — hit reply or find me at [email protected]. I read every email.
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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.
