Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

The beginning of the week felt like equities were on repeat. Markets continued pushing higher through Thursday, with the S&P 500 $SPY ( ▼ 0.32% ) and the Nasdaq $QQQ ( ▼ 0.34% ) once again leading the way as mega cap tech remained the clear source of strength. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.34% ) lagged as higher rates continued pressuring small caps and other rate-sensitive areas of the market. But by Friday, momentum finally started to cool.

Much of the early-week optimism came from improving sentiment around U.S.-China negotiations after summit headlines suggested both sides were making progress toward easing trade tensions and stabilizing supply chain relationships. That helped fuel another week of AI and semiconductor leadership ahead of what most view as the biggest earnings report of the season: NVIDIA on Wednesday.

Friday’s weakness extended into this week. So far, it appears more tied to positioning and rates than a major shift in the growth narrative, especially with options expiration last Friday and VIX expiration this Tuesday. Treasury yields continued pushing higher, with the U.S. 10-year yield briefly touching 4.63% on Monday as inflation concerns moved back into focus and markets began pricing in higher probabilities of additional Fed tightening later this year. Fed Funds futures are even showing rising odds of a rate hike relative to holding steady by the March 2027 meeting, highlighting how persistent inflation expectations have become.

Over the weekend and into Monday, geopolitical headlines also remained in focus. A late-day rally on Monday was fueled by reports suggesting progress in the Middle East, helping risk appetite recover after another rate-driven selloff earlier in the session.

This week’s focus now shifts squarely toward NVDA earnings, along with PMI data and additional Fed commentary, as markets continue balancing AI-driven growth optimism against a much more stubborn higher-for-longer rate environment.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Last week, the U.S. and China held a summit to discuss a wide range of issues, from trade to geopolitics. A delegation of U.S. CEOs joined the visit, including Boeing’s $BA ( ▲ 0.19% ) CEO Kelly Ortberg. Prediction markets were pricing in an 86% chance that China would announce a major aircraft purchase. Leading into the summit, Boeing shares rallied from roughly $225 to $240, a solid move in a short period of time.

But after the announcement, the stock sold off 4%, with Thursday’s price action forming a bearish engulfing candle.

What initially looked like a win for Boeing quickly turned into the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup. When a catalyst becomes widely anticipated and shares are already elevated heading into the event, the market’s reaction to the actual news often matters more than the news itself. It doesn’t always play out that way, but it’s an important pattern to recognize.

The selloff has continued, with shares falling from last week’s high near $244 down toward the $217 area. There is a gap near $212 that I will be watching closely to see how price reacts around that level. If buyers step in with strong volume and the area holds, I will likely size into a bullish setup. However, if the gap fails to hold as support, I will be watching to see whether that level turns into resistance before considering a bearish trade.

Volatility will also be a major part of the setup. With IV rank currently in the high 40s, I will likely look to sell an options spread to help reduce cost basis while keeping risk defined in this environment.

This past weekend, I attended an event focused on building with AI tools. Think of it as a bootcamp for AI enthusiasts. It was a room full of people going from idea to execution, talking through what they were building, and genuinely excited about why they were doing it.

I left energized in a way that was not just about building with AI.

Part of it was the content. But honestly, most of it was the room itself. People with shared interests speaking the same language and pushing each other forward. There’s a version of that you can get through a Zoom call or a Slack channel, but for me it’s not the same. Something about being physically present with people who care about the same things you do creates a type of energy that virtual interaction just cannot replicate.

It also made me reflect on where I could improve in other communities I’ve joined.

I’m part of a trading community, a good one, and I’ve pretty much been a ghost in it. I have access to the room. I just haven’t been walking through the door.

That is a pattern worth examining, especially for retail traders. Trading is one of the more isolating things you can do. Most decisions happen alone. The wins rarely get celebrated. The losses rarely get processed. You just move on to the next setup. Over time, that isolation quietly compounds, and not in a good way.

A community doesn’t fix your P&L. But it does change the environment you’re operating in. Someone else’s progress nudges yours forward. A question you didn’t know you had gets answered. An outside perspective breaks a mental loop you may have been stuck in for weeks.

The problem is not that communities fail to offer value. It’s that people often don’t go from membership to participation or that participation wanes. You join, you pay dues, you get access, and somehow that feels productive. But it’s not. The reminder usually comes once you re-engage.

This applies well beyond trading. A professional network you joined but stopped attending events for. A workshop you enrolled in but quietly drifted away from. A group chat you muted months ago. The value was never in the access. It was always in the showing up.

The door is open, and I’ve not been walking through it as often as I should. Maybe you haven’t either. This week feels like a good time to change that.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.