Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week, the market put on a display of momentum that rarely happens. By April 15th, the S&P 500 was up 9.8% in 10 days, which ranks in the 99.7th percentile of all 10-day returns (h/t @WarrenPies). We saw a relentless bid that pushed SPY, QQQ, and IWM to fresh all-time highs. Just two weeks ago, it seemed like equities and bonds were headed into a tailspin. Now, it feels like risk-on everywhere.

The catalyst? Pure relief. The market exhaled as headlines pointed to a potential Middle East de-escalation. Combined with a softer-than-expected PPI print that cooled inflation fears, alongside a strong earnings backdrop, the buy-the-dip narrative returned with a vengeance as those underexposed chased the momentum.

Over the weekend, futures opened sharply lower on geopolitical headlines and renewed concerns around energy markets. But the reaction didn’t stick. By Monday’s close, equities had fully recovered the gap. That reversal says a lot about the current environment. Markets are willing to fade uncertainty when positioning is clean and liquidity remains supportive.

Looking ahead, this week brings a heavy slate of earnings, with key reports from mega-caps set to drive index-level moves, especially for QQQ. On the macro side, focus shifts to PMIs for signals on employment, inventories, and prices that could influence rate expectations. After last week’s strength, the question is no longer whether buyers exist, but whether they’re willing to keep paying higher prices.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Intel reports after the bell this Thursday. Right now, the tape is stretched. Shares have surged roughly 85% year-to-date, with about $30 added in the last two weeks, driven by a mix of foundry hype and a turnaround narrative that the retail crowd has embraced in the short term.

Street expectations are modest. Revenue is projected around $12.5 billion with adjusted EPS near breakeven. As always, the real test isn’t just the number, it’s the guidance. Management previously flagged supply constraints and margin pressure for this quarter.

If they can’t show a clear path toward the 34.5% gross margin target, the market may not be forgiving. Retail sentiment is bullish but cautious, while analysts remain split. A wide range of price targets suggests no one has strong conviction on where the floor is if the “perfection” narrative cracks.

From a technical perspective, I’d like to see a pullback toward the $53 to $55 price gap before getting long. This level also aligns with the swing high from last quarter’s earnings. With price starting to roll over slightly after its recent run, any long entry here feels suboptimal unless it moves into that gap. With earnings two days away, a short doesn’t make much sense either. For now, I have an alert set at $57 and I’m waiting for price to normalize.

The market has a way of making things feel easy right before it stops paying you.

That’s the trap.

Right now, price action has been constructive. SPY pushing higher. Dips getting bought. Volatility calming. But if you’re honest, it doesn’t feel fully comfortable yet. There’s still hesitation. Still headlines that don’t quite line up with the move.

And that’s the point.

Comfort doesn’t lead moves. It follows them.

By the time something feels obvious, clean, and easy to own, a large portion of the move is already behind you. The discomfort you feel early on isn’t a bug. It’s the signal.

It’s not all blue skies and sunshine ahead, and volatility could come right back. But think back to the last clean upside stretch. The best entries rarely came when everything made sense. They came when:

That hesitation is where the edge is.

Most people wait for the moment when price, narrative, and confidence all line up. But markets don’t reward alignment. They reward planning, patience, and execution.

You’re not getting paid to be comfortable. You’re getting paid to be early enough. That doesn’t mean trying to call tops and bottoms. It means observing the initial reaction to a catalyst, waiting for a setup, then executing.

The same dynamic shows up outside the market.

At work, the best opportunities rarely come when you feel fully ready. It’s when you’re asked to step into something slightly bigger than your current skill set. The instinct is to wait until you feel prepared. But that feeling usually comes after you’ve already stepped into it.

Or when you have a point of view in a meeting that goes against the room. It’s easier to stay quiet, gather more data, wait for backup. But the people who shape outcomes are the ones willing to speak while it still feels uncertain.

The same thing shows up in moments like raising your rates, asking for a promotion, or pushing back on scope. There’s always a moment where you think, maybe I’ll wait one more cycle, one more win, one more signal. But that “one more” is usually just comfort trying to catch up.

Personally, it shows up in smaller ways too.

Walking into a room where you don’t know many people. It’s easy to stay on the edge, check your phone, wait for familiarity. But the people who benefit from those environments move before it feels natural. Just say hi.

Or reaching out to someone you haven’t talked to in a while. There’s a split second of hesitation, wondering if it’s random or awkward. That hesitation is exactly why most people don’t do it. And exactly why it works when you do.

Even committing to something new, a class, a routine, a hobby. The first few times always feel off. You don’t feel like someone who does this yet. That identity only forms after you’ve shown up enough times while it still feels unfamiliar.

That’s the throughline.

Comfort is confirmation. And confirmation is often late.

The goal isn’t to seek discomfort for its own sake. It’s to recognize that the early stages of anything worthwhile will feel uncertain. Slightly off. Not fully validated.

In markets, that’s where trends begin.

In your career, that’s where leverage is created.

In your personal life, that’s where momentum starts.

If you wait until it feels easy, you’re not avoiding risk. You’re just accepting a worse entry.

Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.