Closing the Year With Perspective

Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Around the Market

Thin trading and big-picture context

The holiday week is upon us, bringing just enough buying to push the S&P 500 (via SPY) up about 0.6% to $684.83. The week began with selling pressure, with SPY trading down to $671, but late-week strength, led by the tech sector and particularly semiconductors, lifted equities overall.

Trading volume has already started to dry up as we wind down 2025, but it’s been quite a ride. The S&P 500 opened the year at $589, declined 18% by April, and has since climbed roughly 16% from that opening print. Predictions for 2026 are already everywhere. Is it an AI bubble? Is it not? What about the labor market? Isn’t GDP growth still strong?

The truth is, there’s no way to know where markets will go next. One thing is certain though. There will always be opportunities to take risk. Whether that’s equities, treasuries, commodities, cryptocurrencies, or something else entirely. Be patient, be decisive, and follow your process.

I’ll be here to keep you updated as we roll into the new year. Happy Holidays, everyone.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• FOMC Minutes (Tue 12/30 2:00p ET)

Notable Earnings

• None

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

Year-end liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics

Like Thanksgiving week, trading volumes will be much lower with it being Christmas week. Cash equity markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25, and Wednesday’s session will end early at 1 p.m. ET. Markets reopen on Friday, but unless there’s a major global event, it’s unlikely we see significant moves as the year comes to a close. With that in mind, I won’t be trading much, but I will be watching movements in the Japanese yen.

Inflation has been a challenge globally, and Japan has not escaped it, with the latest inflation print coming in at 2.9%. At its December 19 meeting, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Higher yields typically support a stronger currency, but despite the rate hike, the yen failed to rally.

Current prices, roughly 1 USD to 156 yen, sit in territory where the Ministry of Finance has historically hinted at intervening in the foreign exchange market to slow further weakness. With lower liquidity around year-end, this could be the window to amplify those warnings, which have already started, or less likely, for the BoJ to directly intervene and buy yen to strengthen the currency.

What’s Top of Mind

Finding clarity by stepping out of your head

It’s a holiday week, which often brings a strange mix of gratitude and mental noise. Time off may be on the calendar, but the mind doesn’t always follow. Lists keep running. Thoughts drift to what didn’t get done, what still needs doing, or what the next few weeks might bring. Reflection is valuable. It helps us understand where we can improve. But there needs to be balance, so reflection doesn’t turn into regret or worry.

One thing I’ve learned over the years is how different it feels when you get out of your head and into your body. Activities like lifting weights, running, or taking a long walk pull you back into the present. When you’re focused on balance, breath, or the sounds around you, there’s little room left for mental spirals. The body demands attention in a way the mind can’t override.

When you’re stuck in your head, you’re almost always somewhere else. The past shows up as regret. The future shows up as fear or anxiety. But when you’re fully present, those thoughts lose their grip. If you’re lifting something heavy and focused on not dropping it, you’re not replaying yesterday or worrying about tomorrow. You’re just there, doing the thing in front of you.

There’s real power in intentionally finding moments like that. For me, it’s mostly physical activity, but the same shift can come from meditating, following a complicated recipe, playing an instrument, or pulling out a board game. Doing something creates space from overthinking. Over time, that space adds up. It softens anxiety and quiets fear.

As the year winds down, I’m trying to be more deliberate about this. Finding time to pause, be present, and feel satisfied with what I’m doing in that moment. Whether it’s with family, friends, someone you just met, or by yourself, before the calendar turns, take a minute to simply be here. Sometimes that’s the most meaningful reset you can give yourself.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.