Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

The S&P 500 (via SPY) started June on a strong note, but momentum has stalled a bit over the past week. It’s only up about 0.50% since last Monday’s close but is now less than 2% below the all-time highs from February. This period of consolidation may not last long, though, with the Federal Reserve releasing an updated Summary of Economic Projections this week. That report will include forecasts on key indicators like inflation, GDP, and unemployment.

In addition to the Fed, developments in the Middle East and movements in oil prices could also act as market catalysts. We’ll need to stay nimble, and I’ll be sure to keep you updated as things unfold.

Other notable market moves since last week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

I’ve mentioned it before, but after last week’s price movement driven by geopolitical concerns, I’m keeping a close eye on what some call black gold: crude oil.

The week began with /CL crude oil futures priced at $63.81. On Friday, we saw a massive trading range on significant volume: prices moved from a low of $67.11 to a high of $74.63 before closing at $71.29. That ~11% intraday range (based on the previous day’s close) is rare. Friday’s volume (around 669,000 contracts) was 2.4 times higher than Thursday’s, suggesting capitulation. That idea seemed to be supported when oil futures opened Sunday night at their high of $75.50 and closed Monday much lower at $70.25.

I’ll be watching Tuesday’s price action closely. If we see continued downward pressure and a close below Monday’s low, it could signal a reversal and potentially lower prices by week’s end. Markets are powerful discounting mechanisms, and it’s possible that oil is now pricing in reduced supply disruptions or early signs of geopolitical de-escalation. But as always, only time will tell if that’s the correct interpretation.

Lastly, I want to acknowledge that trading or analyzing an asset tied to human suffering and conflict can feel callous. I completely understand if some prefer not to engage with it at all. The human impact of these events is not lost on me. For this newsletter, my goal is to provide as objective an outlook as possible, and that’s what I’m aiming to do here.

I took some time off last week, and while I was away, I finally started reading Atomic Habits by James Clear. I first heard about the book from a trader I follow who often talks about how it’s a game-changer, for traders and non-traders alike. I’m not a huge reader, but since it builds on the idea of getting 1% better every day, it felt right up my alley.

I just finished the book, and one concept that really stuck with me (and might resonate with you too) is what Clear calls the Plateau of Latent Potential. Change is rarely linear. Whether you’re trying to build a good habit or break a bad one, it’s common to put in a lot of effort without seeing results right away. You might grind for days, weeks, or even months and feel like nothing’s happening. But it’s not wasted effort, it’s stored energy. Once you break through that plateau, progress feels sudden and meaningful.

It reminded me of my own experience back in college. In high school, I was a skinny kid. But once I got to college and binged on dorm food and McDonald’s (two double cheeseburgers, two medium fries, and a 20-piece nugget, please. And yes, Diet Coke), I packed on weight fast. It was a full-on “Freshman 50,” and I knew I needed to make a change.

I committed to working out six days a week, biking on four of them and playing basketball on two. On day one, I weighed myself and decided I’d only check in every Friday to avoid obsessing over daily fluctuations. For the first four weeks, my weight stayed almost exactly the same. It was pretty discouraging.

But then, in week five, I finally started to see a shift, about two pounds lost per week, consistently. That early work wasn’t for nothing; it just needed time to show. As Clear puts it, the work you do when you're not seeing progress isn’t being ignored, it’s being stored. Once you break through the plateau, the results come quickly.

Discouragement is hard to avoid, but the habits and systems you build can carry you through. Whether it’s trading, your career, or parenthood, staying consistent through the valley of disappointment will lead to growth. Keep showing up and trust that it’s adding up.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.