Act Quickly or Think Through Everything?

Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Around the Market

Markets push higher despite negative macro data, with the Fed meeting and September expiration on deck.

The S&P 500 (via SPY) surged to fresh all-time highs last week, hitting $646.19 on Wednesday. Despite negative macroeconomic data, equity markets continued to climb, with every dip quickly bought up like queso at Qdoba.

The Federal Reserve has been in the spotlight all year, and attention will sharpen even more with the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium set for this Friday. September options expiration on the 19th also looms large. Although a month away, historically September has been one of the more volatile months for stocks, so traders are watching closely for any signs of momentum shifting. While this doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the rally, it’s a critical stretch I’m watching for early signs of a potential reversal.

Other key market moves last week:

• Volatility (VIX): Nearly flatlined, touching a low of 14.30 before closing down 7.75% at 14.99

• Gold: Still rangebound, slipping about $15 to ~$3,378

• Bonds: Sold off on hotter inflation data, down 1.1% to 113.88

• US dollar (DXY): Trying to find a bottom, but still off $0.35 to 98.17

• Crude oil: Pressured but holding up, down $0.51 to $62.58

• Bitcoin: Hit a new all-time high near $123,900 before retreating, now lower by about $2,600 at ~$116,400

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• FOMC Fed Minutes (Wed 8/20 2:00p ET)

• Fed Char Powell Speech - Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Fri 8/22 10:00a ET)

• US Durable Goods Orders (Tue 8/26 8:30a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Target TGT (before open Wed 8/20)

• Walmart WMT (before open Thu 8/21)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

Despite crypto excitement, COIN lags behind. Here’s what I’m watching for the next move.

While the equity market pushes near all-time highs, one crypto-related stock is lagging: Coinbase (COIN). After hitting its own record high of $444.64 in July, Coinbase stock is now down more than 25%, trading in the $320s.

On Monday, COIN appeared to find support near the January 24 high around $310 and closed the day at $321. It also registered a higher low compared to the August 6 low of ~$293. For the bulls to regain control, I’m watching for confirmation signals such as a 5EMA/13EMA bullish crossover or a close above the July 1 low. That could open the door to a move back toward the July 31 price gap. On the flip side, if the stock breaks down, COIN may need to re-balance between the $260–$298 range before bullish momentum can resume.

From an options trading perspective, implied volatility (IV) rank is low at about 15. With IV suppressed across equities and especially in post-earnings setups like this one, I’m leaning toward debit-style option trades. Given Coinbase’s high share price, strategies like a calendar spread or vertical debit spread help control position size and keep capital usage manageable while still expressing a directional view.

What’s Top of Mind

Not every choice needs to be perfect. Knowing when to move fast and when to slow down is the real edge.

When it comes to decision-making, I’m always weighing the tradeoff between speed and accuracy. Some situations reward quick action, while others demand careful precision. The challenge, of course, is knowing which is which.

Take everyday life. If you’re choosing a restaurant with friends, there’s no need to scroll reviews for half an hour. Just pick a spot. The upside of acting quickly outweighs the risk of a less-than-perfect choice. But if you’re choosing a doctor for a long-term health issue, slowing down to research and ask questions is worth every minute.

The same tension shows up in career decisions. Sometimes an opportunity appears with a short window, and waiting for every detail to be clear means missing it. Other times, like switching industries or starting a business, it’s smarter to gather more information before jumping in.

What makes this tricky is that we rarely have perfect clarity upfront. We live with uncertainty, and in that uncertainty it’s easy to confuse situations that call for speed with those that require accuracy. Defaulting to speed can create avoidable messes. Defaulting to accuracy can leave you stuck.

The better question may not be “Which is better?” but “Where in my life am I okay with being directionally correct versus absolutely right?” Identifying those areas in advance removes pressure in the moment.

For me, the reminder is simple: not every decision needs to be maximized. For those that know me, this can be difficult because I tend to optimize almost everything. But often “good enough” and forward momentum beat waiting for flawless clarity. Other times, the pause is exactly what prevents a costly mistake. The art is figuring out where each applies.

Next week, I’ll build on this by sharing how I frame risk in decision-making under uncertainty. In the meantime, you can always do some quick math to help guide your next move.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.