A Wild Wednesday Ahead

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Around the Market

Earnings, geopolitics, and the Fed set up a pivotal week

Equities faced a choppy, holiday-shortened week with mixed price action. The S&P 500 (SPY) edged up 0.15%, the Nasdaq (QQQ) recovered to finish higher by 0.68%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) dipped 0.67%. Heightened geopolitical rhetoric, centered on a proposed 10% tariff on European partners and escalating tensions tied to the administration’s interest in Greenland, initially sparked a risk-off move into traditional safe havens. The resulting volatility sent gold and silver to record highs, with silver futures briefly trading near $118.

A midweek tech rally led by Nvidia (NVDA) provided some relief, but that momentum was blunted by disappointing guidance from Intel (INTC), which dragged the broader chip sector lower on Friday.

Attention now turns to a high-stakes Wednesday that could help define the market’s next direction. All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where a rate hold is nearly certain at roughly a 97% probability. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely watched for any response to growing political pressure and the ongoing DOJ investigation. At the same time, the so-called Magnificent Seven face a moment of truth. Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL) all report earnings this week. Investors are increasingly demanding evidence that massive AI-related capital expenditures are translating into durable bottom-line growth.

I’m expecting a volatile Wednesday, with guidance around AI monetization and the Fed’s independence likely setting the tone for the next leg in equities.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with Summary of Economic Projections - Fed Rate Decision and Press Conference (Wed 1/28 2:00p ET)

• Producer Price Index PPI (Fri 1/30 8:30a ET)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon 2/2 10:00a ET)

• Job Openings JOLTs (Tue 2/3 10:00a ET)

Notable Earnings

• Microsoft MSFT (Wed 1/28 after close)

• Tesla TSLA (Wed 1/28 after close)

• Meta Platforms META (Wed 1/28 after close)

• International Business Machines IBM (Wed 1/28 after close)

• Apple AAPL (Thu 1/29 after close)

• Palantir Technologies PLTR (Mon 2/2 after close)

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

When momentum turns exponential, patience matters

My gold call for 2026 is somehow almost there already, but this week my focus is on a different metal. The silver market is displaying one of the most remarkable technical profiles I have seen in recent years. Looking at the March 2026 silver futures contract (/SIH6), price has surged from an April 2025 low of $29.620 to a peak of $117.700 earlier this week. What began as a steady advance has transitioned into a near-vertical move.

Despite the speed and magnitude of the rally, I believe the broader structural tailwinds remain intact. Ongoing themes such as deglobalization, aggressive tariff rhetoric, global M2 (as a liquidity proxy), and diversification away from the dollar by global central banks continue to provide a fundamental backdrop of support. For traders already holding long exposure, the trend remains your friend.

That said, for anyone looking to initiate new positions, chasing price at current levels introduces meaningful risk. I am patiently waiting for a mean-reversion pullback toward the 13-day EMA, currently near $95, before considering fresh long exposure.

Silver prices also tend to be positively correlated with volatility, which is a classic characteristic of this market. How volatility behaves during any pullback will matter. If volatility begins to expand again after a dip, a long call vertical spread would be my preferred structure to manage both cost and risk. For traders seeking a more accessible product with simpler position sizing, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) remains a solid alternative.

What’s Top of Mind

Using identity to shape habits

A few weeks ago, I was reminded of a simple but powerful idea from Atomic Habits by James Clear. Habits that actually stick are built around identity, not outcomes. The mistake many of us make is obsessing over the finish line. We fixate on the goal, the number, the result. But goals are temporary. Identity is durable.

I have a somewhat ridiculous habit of working out every day. When I think about how I stay consistent, the honest answer is that I rarely focus on the outcome. I’m not waking up each morning motivated by the abstract idea of living a healthy lifestyle. I work out because it is part of who I am. I’m someone who does some sort of physical activity every day. The health benefits are a by-product, not the driver.

When your focus shifts to identity, decisions become simpler. Instead of asking, “Should I work out today?” the question becomes, “What would someone like me do?” Someone who sees themselves as an active person at least goes for a walk, even on low-energy days. Someone who identifies as disciplined shows up even when motivation fades.

This framework extends far beyond fitness. In your personal life, think less about specific goals and more about the type of person you want to become. Instead of saying, “I want to read more,” try, “I’m a reader.” Instead of, “I want to be more organized,” think, “I am someone who values order and preparation.” Small actions, repeated consistently, reinforce identity over time.

Professionally, the same principle applies. High performers are rarely driven by single achievements. They see themselves as disciplined, curious, prepared, or reliable. A trader who identifies as someone who manages risk well naturally sizes positions according to their rules. A professional who sees themselves as dependable follows through even when no one is watching.

For 2026, I thought about setting a goal to read four books this year, a low bar that I still struggle to clear. But the better framing is to think of myself as a reader. That mindset is not limited to books. It can include journal articles, research on trading and investing, or even another newsletter. The same applies here. When I started this, I originally set a goal to publish something weekly at least 45 times over the next year. In reality, I should have been thinking of myself as a writer, admittedly not a great one yet, and letting the results follow.

The beauty of this framework is that goals still get achieved. They just stop being the focal point. When you invest in identity, results tend to take care of themselves. The real work is not chasing outcomes. It is casting votes, day after day, for the person you want to become. Over time, those votes compound into something far more powerful than motivation: habits.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.