A Flat Week That Didn't Feel Flat

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Around the Market

Sentiment shifts, rate cut odds, and the holiday setup

The S&P 500 (via SPY) ended the week flat, eking out a gain of 0.46%, up about $3 closing at $668.73. I say eke because the week did not start off well. Last Monday afternoon’s selloff continued into Tuesday, pushing SPY down to about $656 before recovering a bit midday. After Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, which were solid on the headline, the market got a lift before the open Thursday. Even so, weakness returned and SPY sold off about $20, or roughly 3%, on the day. Since then, equities have recovered most of those losses and SPY is back near $670.

Over the past month, sentiment in equities has shifted. The market is currently in a downtrend, defined by lower lows and lower highs. Earnings season is mostly wrapped up, and while the results were generally good, Nvidia was not the catalyst the market cared about most. Right now, price action is hinging on fed funds rate cut probabilities. When December cut odds dropped to 30%, SPY sold off by about 3.5% from high to low that day. Now that those odds have moved back to 85%, the market has shown strength over the last two sessions. The question now is whether that will be enough of a tailwind to break the downtrend during this shortened holiday week.

Other key market moves this past week:

The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

• US Durable Goods Orders (Wed 11/26 8:30a ET)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon 12/1 10:00a ET)

Notable Earnings

• None

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

On My Radar

How the price gap test played out

With the holiday week ahead in the U.S., trading volume will be lighter as many people take time off. Equity markets will be closed Thursday and Friday’s session will end early at 1 p.m. ET. Because of that, I don’t have a new trade idea, but I want to revisit what I was watching last week in Alphabet (GOOGL).

I was focused on the price approaching the November 14 price gap at the day’s high of $278.56. I like to keep an eye on price gaps because when they hold, they can offer opportunities to go long or short and also act as clean exit levels if a trade moves against me. They don’t always work, but they provide good setups and allow for strict execution steps.

On November 18, price tested the gap, dipped slightly below it to $278.20, and then found support, eventually closing near $284 on the day. So far, it looks like there were enough aggressive buyers at the gap level to defend price and push it back toward a new all-time high at $319.48.

What’s Top of Mind

A Thanksgiving reminder about unseen effort

If you are heading to a Thanksgiving gathering, it often looks effortless from the outside. You walk into a warm house, the food is ready, and everything feels smooth and put together. But anyone who has hosted and cooked for a large group knows how much happened before the first guest arrived. Someone had to shop for groceries. Someone prepped ingredients early in the morning or even the day before. Someone kept track of timers. Someone quietly problem solved when the turkey cooked too fast or started to dry out. Or when the rolls needed more time and guests were getting hangry. Most of the magic comes from hours of unglamorous effort that no one sees.

I’ve been thinking about that a lot this week because so much of life works the same way. Progress in any area is built on the silent work behind the scenes. It is the planning, the practice, the small tweaks, and the consistency that never make it into the highlight reel. You only notice the results when everything finally comes together.

In my own life, I feel like the most meaningful improvements rarely come from dramatic moments. They show up in the quiet decisions throughout the day. For example, reviewing the data I’ve collected on a trade setup, evaluating trades I’ve back-tested, or practicing patience when I stick to my plan instead of fomo-ing into a move. The days I feel most prepared usually come from nights spent reviewing levels, journaling trades, or tightening my process when no one is watching.

The same pattern shows up in every part of life. A big presentation or investor pitch feels smooth only because you spent hours refining slides, rehearsing transitions, and anticipating questions. Running a marathon looks like one accomplishment, but it reflects months of early alarms, long runs (many which may be solo), and intentional recovery. Even a job promotion usually represents years of consistent performance, proactive learning, and relationship building that happened long before the title changed.

We often underestimate the power of this behind the scenes work. It creates momentum that does not feel obvious until weeks or months later. So as we move into Thanksgiving week, it’s a good time to appreciate the people who put in that unseen work and to recognize the quiet work we do ourselves. The things no one sees often have the biggest impact on the successes we achieve. And the final picture only looks seamless because of what happened long before.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.