Welcome back to Hitting the Bid Weekly!

Last week continued to show what headlines can do to a market. Equities pushed higher throughout the week, with SPY working its way back to highs, up 4.1%, QQQ riding mega-cap strength, up 4.9%, and IWM showing strong participation, up 5.0%. The tone stayed bid despite rising macro noise, with dip buyers consistently stepping in.

Tuesday was the standout. After the bell, news of a Middle East ceasefire hit the wires. The relief rally was quick. Shorts were trapped as SPY jumped 2% as the market priced in an immediate de-escalation of the Iran conflict. Not even Friday’s high inflation print could dampen the mood.

Signs of a deal were short-lived. Sunday futures gapped down after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed. The White House announcement of a Strait of Hormuz blockade sent crude back above $100 and pushed futures lower.

However, that weakness was quickly absorbed. Yesterday was particularly telling. Equities drifted higher for most of the session before a sharp ramp in the final 10 minutes pushed indices toward highs. That late-day strength felt positioning-driven, with underexposed participants forced to chase into the close rather than risk missing continuation if positive headlines emerge.

Beyond the headlines, focus now shifts to the earnings slate and key macro prints, including retail sales and Fed commentary. The market continues to reward strength, but positioning is getting tighter, making reactions to new information increasingly important.

Key market moves this past week:

Not an exhaustive list — just a few I’m watching closely for potential market impact.

Netflix (NFLX) earnings hit the tape after the close this Thursday. Expectations are for $0.76 EPS on roughly $12.17 billion in revenue, representing a solid 15% year-over-year increase. The stock has shown relative strength since walking away from the Warner Bros. deal in February, avoiding what would have been a costly acquisition. Now the market wants to see if they can execute on their own.

Analysts are focused on ad-tier scaling and whether recent price increases are starting to impact subscriber retention. The password sharing tailwind is likely priced in at this point. The key question is whether live programming and new licensing deals with Sony and Universal are meaningfully increasing Average Revenue Per User. If guidance points to slower ad growth, the recent rally into the $103 to $107 resistance zone could face pressure.

From a technical standpoint, gaps and prior swing highs and lows may keep NFLX contained despite the binary nature of earnings. The expected move is just under $6, or about 6%, and IV rank is elevated at 65 heading into the event.

One approach is to take advantage of the post-earnings volatility crush by selling options before the close on Thursday. Personally, I’m waiting until Thursday afternoon to evaluate price positioning before considering any trade. If the range breaks before then, I’ll reassess price and IV rank on Friday.

Tomorrow marks the 1-year anniversary of Hitting the Bid, and a year into writing this newsletter, I’ve realized something simple:

Most of what improves your results is not new information. It’s better behavior.

If I were starting trading from scratch, these are the five rules I would give myself. They’re common themes you’d come across if you’ve been with me for the year.

1. Focus on process, not P&L

Early on, I judged decisions based on outcomes. Green trade meant good. Red trade meant bad.

That is backwards.

Some of my best trades lost money. Some of my worst made it.

Now, I evaluate whether I followed my process:

Did I wait for confirmation?
Did I size appropriately?
Did I enter for the right reason?

Same idea outside of markets. You don’t judge a workout by the scale the next morning. You judge it by whether you showed up and did the work, following your process along the way.

2. Fewer trades, higher conviction

Activity feels productive. Often, it’s not.

There were weeks where I took 10 or more trades and had nothing to show for it except mental fatigue and transaction costs. The best weeks were usually two or three clean setups where everything aligned.

SPY grinding higher on low volatility is not a signal to force trades. It is a signal to be selective or lean into momentum.

In your professional life, it’s the same. Doing five things halfway rarely beats doing one thing exceptionally well.

3. Let data accumulate before reacting

One candle is not a trend. One headline is not a regime shift.

I used to react too quickly. A single CPI print, a sudden move in yields, a sharp open, and I would feel the urge to adjust immediately.

More often than not, the second or third data point told a different story.

This shows up everywhere. A bad meeting does not mean things are off track. One off day does not mean your routine is broken.

Zoom out. Let the data build. Then analyze and adjust.

4. Protect your mental capital like it’s real capital

Overtrading does not just hurt your account. It impacts your decision-making.

There were stretches where I was not losing money, but I was making worse decisions simply because I was mentally fatigued.

Stepping away is a strategy.

Outside of markets, constant context switching, checking your phone, and saying yes to everything all compound into worse decisions.

Create an environment that allows you to focus.

5. Consistency beats intensity, every time

Big swings feel good. They also do not last.

What actually moved the needle this year was consistency:

Showing up every week to write
Reviewing trades regularly
Sticking to the same core process

No single day changed anything. The accumulation did.

It is no different than building strength, developing a skill, or improving at work. One great day will not do it. A lot of solid days will.

A year in, I am not a completely different trader. I may not be a great writer yet.

But I am more consistent. More patient. More intentional.

And if there is one takeaway from all of this, it is this:

You don’t always need a new strategy.
You need a better standard for how you operate.

P.S. Want to see more of my trades? Subscribe to my YouTube channel.

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Hitting the Bid content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information contained is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation of any security, futures contract, digital asset or alike. I may hold a position in the trading vehicles discussed. Trading and investing contains risk. All investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment duration before entering any trade or investment.